As mid-May approaches, college campuses across America are turning into ghost towns, as millions of young adults begin their Summer vacations, jobs, internships, and fantasy baseball addictions. When they finally park themselves back at Mom and Dad's, they will soon realize that the Memorial Day benchmark that a lot of owners use as the date they start tinkering is fast approaching.
Now, maybe you are in leagues with less patient or pro-active owners who have already been working the trade market; maybe not. Either way, the following can serve as a nice tidbit of info, or review, as trading season is soon in full effect.
Know Your Team
You know the countless hours you spent doing projections, scenarios, so on and so forth this Winter? Hell, my research should have classified as a part-time job with the amount of time I committed to it. Well, 6 weeks in, all that work isn't done and out the window now that the Draft is over. Which players are performing on par with your expectations? Who is exceeding them? Who isn't living up to their billing? And the most important question that ties them all together: Why? Often, people fail to consider the 'why', but more often than not, the 'why' will help determine whether the current trend is likely to continue or get bucked.
Remember, in fantasy baseball, the only thing that matters to you is what a player does from today forward. What he's done from Opening Day until today means nothing -- it is just a tool to be used in trade discussions. This brings me to my next point...
Know Your Opponent
In my 11 years of experience in fantasy baseball, I have found this to be the single most important aspect of the trade dynamic. It is a skill, certainly; and not one that every owner possesses. Add it to your arsenal of trade strategies, and watch your success rates increase.
What it basically comes down to is doing your homework. Your goal in almost any trade is to acquire a certain player, position, or stat set. The problem arises when owners fail to realize that this is the goal of all of their league-mates as well. So, it doesn't matter if a player fits perfectly into your roster, if you have nothing to fill your fellow owner's needs. What are those needs, you ask? Well, here's where doing your homework and knowing your opponent come into play.
You notice your opponent has a glaring weakness. It may be his SS. It may be Stolen Bases. It may be a combination of things. the thing here is, your league-mate may not realize this, or at least the capacity of it. So, it is your job to help them see the light, and as a result, have them send you the player you want, for the player they need. You have what they need, regardless of what it is, and you need to sell it to them.
On the flip side, you may be able to get yourself a discount rate on something that your opponent has excess of. Maybe he's enjoying Ichiro's recent SB outburst, while at the same time expecting Jose Reyes to remember that he's supposed to steal 70 bases, and you can lead him to believe that the few SB that Nick Markakis is going to provide him are really unnecessary, when he could be pulling in more RBI from a player batting in the heart of a better team. Suddenly you're getting a discounted rate on a commodity, and your league-mate thinks he's being shrewd. It's all about perception, really.
Know the Wire
The importance of replacement level statistics available at no cost in Free Agency cannot be understated. There's a reasonably large chance that there's a player or two on your roster who aren't performing worlds better than what can be had at the cost of a Drop and nothing else. Use this to your advantage. More competitive players are no longer falling prey to the classic 2-for-1 swap, but if crafted carefully, trades of this nature are still possible, when the appearance of you overpaying seems obvious.
When sending two players for one in return, consider the player you will be replacing the empty roster spot with as part of the trade. It's not Players A & B for Player C. It's Players A & B for Player C and Player D from Free Agency. The net gain may be greater for you than your opponent realizes. Again, all about perception.
Know Your Skill Level
The vast array of skill levels of players playing this game we all love is as broad as the night sky. It is necessary to know at which level your league is operating on. On the highest levels, owners are no longer taking part in classic Buy Low/Sell High transactions. Remember all those hours spent on projections I mentioned earlier? Well, people are sticking to them, or making slight modifications, instead of overreacting and going Chicken Little on their studs. However, that is not always the case.
There are still leagues out there where you can offer Nate McLouth for Ryan Howard and have your league-mate think he just fleeced you. If your competition level is at that point, take advantage of it. Next year, step your game up, as you've got a competitive edge and should be playing against peers of equal knowledge and skill, but you're already at where you're at, so there's no reason not to maximize your team this season.
Know When to Buy High
Some of you are saying, 'First you say Ryan Howard is going to be the #1 fantasy player this season, and now you tell me to Buy High. So much for reading your blog anymore...' Give me a chance, here. Again, back to your projections. There are players out there, good ones, looking to 'sell high' on players like Lance Berkman, Chipper Jones, Derrek Lee, among others. They want t hat classic Buy Low, and you're the perfect putz to give it to them. Are you paying premium price for a player? Maybe, but maybe not.
Remember, they think they are selling high, but at the same time, they understand they are paying for name value on your end; so while you may have changed your opinion on Ryan Howard; he's still the guy who hits HR in his sleep in other seasons, and carries that value.
If an opportunity presents itself, and you are a believer in a player to keep the pace they've set early, don't be afraid to pay proper value for the stats. If you think this is the year that Ervin Santana finally figures it out on the Road, then go ot and get him, and reap the benefits. Sell your league-mate on past stats, and the risks you're assuming, so you're not paying full premium, and sell him on the positive aspects of the player you're sending; whatever they may be.
Know the Numbers
Remember, the names mean nothing in fantasy baseball -- only the numbers do. It doesn't matter if you get your 120 RBI from Josh Hamilton or Manny Ramirez; they're all worth the same in the eyes of the statistician. There are players out there willing to pay for names due to the confidence in said numbers that are associated with them, possibly due to players having already achieved said numbers or any other number of reasons. Don't fall into traps. Analyze the numbers, project from today forward, and treat the names like stock symbols. All they do is represent the statistical value they are associated with. There is more than one way to skin a cat.
Know When to Stop
Under no circumstance should you downplay the player you are trying to trade for. I don't see this happen the way I used to, but there are still owners out there using this as a trade strategy. Question: If you spend 10 minutes telling me why a player on my team stinks, won't keep his numbers up, is a fluke, yadda yadda yadda; why do you want him then? I mean, you just told me all these awful attributes about him, yet here you are wanting to take him on to your roster still? Sorry, 1 + 1 doesn't = 2 here.
Instead, discuss levels of confidence in players maintaining pace. You offer consistency for what may be the unknown. You offer a paradigm of health for what may be a perennial injury risk. There's 2 sides to every coin, and you need to present them both, and let your league-made decide if he's been sold on your bid. Of course there's going to be a slight slant towards what you want, but you're selling here, so that's to be expected. However, if you expect to pump up the player you're sending and trash the player you want, and be a successful trader at anything beyond the lowest levels of fantasy baseball, you've got another thing coming.
In Closing
Hopefully you'll be able to use some of these tactics to pull off some of the clutch trades that put you over the top in your leagues. If you're anything like me, you've hit a few bumps in the road in some of your leagues (H2H WS USA East, for example), and will be hitting the trade scene in the near future. Remember, you are in control, and you should never leave a successful trade anything other than completely happy.
Class dismissed.
Until next time...(Happy belated Mother's Day to all mothers across RDB).
I was actually going to write something like this ago. I even gave it a title "The Art of the Trade", but a Jedi Master never imparts his ways of the Force...well, without charging $10,000 per session.
Good writeup. To me, most of it seems more like common sense than it involves strategy. I think knowing about your team's qualities is 60% of the battle right there and in fact, strategizing over your team's makeup is really the big key to success. One thing that's really overlooked is the micromanagement factor in H2H and this is where many H2H managers who lose more than their fair share, fail to see. What I mean, in this sense, is crafting a team that's less prone to the fluctuations of week to week play. There's no concrete method to address this, but I always say, stockpile in the categories you know you have control over, on a relatively consistent enough basis. Another thing I believe in is to always look to reduce your opportunity cost, which is always more pronounced with hitting than it is with pitching. Playing hitting matchups seems folly to me, because you run a big risk of missing out key contributions on your bench.
I tend to think that the "buy low/sell high" tenet, if you read into it too much, can really narrow your thinking in not seeing the big picture. That mantra should be treated as such, a guide, not a law. As you said, doing your homework and knowing the reason why things happen are essential. On top of that, I said 60% of the battle is strategizing your team with the focus being in reducing weekly fluctuations as much as possible, but 40%, which should be as equally as important, is timing. Timing is everything and in the end, you really have to know when to hold 'em and fold 'em. No one can teach you that.
good write up. luck and timing seem to be becoming more and more important in my money leage, nobody is taking buy low sell high trades any more and echoing a liss article on trades, almost everyone in my main money league is extremely reluctant to take any trade as they think they'll get fleeced. any offer has to be with a lot of online chatting to argue how the trade will help both teams win.
Sometimes you gotta just jump in with both feet. In the case of an Ichiro/McLouth-Snell trade I made with the LA Thrashers that was discussed here. My objective was neither to acquire McLouth nor to dump Ichiro, I was in desperate need of SP pitching. I also had an abundance of OF's. While McLouth has cooled since the trade (average wise), Ichiro has begun running (sb's), Snell, my main objective is failing (was hoing for k's more than w's). Does that make it a bad trade? Not necessarily, Ichiro is not hitting .400 quite yet, McLouth is displaying more power than I bargained for and Snell has a few more starts to right his ship, before Chris Carpenter (DL) may take his spot. Having said that, I give the LA Thrashers a half point in the deal, as Ichiro's sb's kept him close in our H2H match up. Still a fairly even trade and I would probably do it again today with my current roster.
I don't think I said it was a horrible deal on your part, just riskier. For me, there really was no serious downside in trading McLouth as 1) he was just a FA pickup for me with no real intention to start him and 2) Ichiro was just the safer pick (that doesn't mean he carried the highest reward of the two). However, that said, not even the eternal optimist could've seen McLouth display the kind of form he's shown this early.
It was a really ballsy move on your part to deal Ichiro for McLouth, but so far, it's paying off for you even if Snell hasn't earned his keep. It's the art of the trade, after all, and I think buying high is really the most beautiful deal of them all if it pans out for you. If I were in your shoes, you should've asked for McLouth/Harang for Ichiro. I think you minimize your risk some should McLouth regress in some way.
I said it was a bad deal, and I still think so. I would much rather have Ichiro the rest of the way.
but what do i know, i am in last place.
I feel your pain.
I'm still hedging this bet. I picked up bourn off the wire to replace Ichiro's sb's. The hedge is in hoping I get him in there on the right days and that his avg doesn't pull me down in the process. McLouth's hr numbers are a pleasant surprise. I was expecting even hr/sb numbers. But with the rest of the roster I have, his hr's almost gaurantee a win in that category. Of course Bourn gets caught three out of five times since I picked him up. But those two should be enough for this week.
"Remember, in fantasy baseball, the only thing that matters to you is what a player does from today forward. What he's done from Opening Day until today means nothing -- it is just a tool to be used in trade discussions."
Exactly.....I wish more people realised this.