Chasing the Treble week 5 - The Weekly Elevator Pitch

Since the first draft day of the season up until now, in the back of my
mind, I've been pondering about H2H pitching strategy and the
replacement level of pitching/hitting. With so much reflection done on
these topics, I thought I'd jot down my musings in today's installment
about the value of starting pitching in H2H leagues (using the H2HWS
format as context) and hopefully, this will open up a discussion about
H2H strategy in general.

What inspired me to write this column
was my squad in the 14-team H2H World Series. As you probably could've
surmised if you read my World Series draft recap, I was somewhat
dissatisfied with my team as a whole, as I believed I didn't have
enough offensive firepower to mount consistent week-to-week form in the
batting categories to compete well consistently. Conversely, I drafted
a team with quite possibly the deepest pitching in the league in depth
and in quality, as a result of making do with a 12th overall pick.
Granted, every team is prone to streaks to some effect, some are less
prone than others because they've hedged their bets in building their
teams around the best all-around contributors in the categories that
tend to be less prone to week-to-week change. For that reason, this is
why a Ryan Howard is more prized than a Johan Santana. Not only is
Howard capable of a 40-50 HR season and doing so in bunches, Howard can
fetch your squad a 3-4 HR, 10 RBI week given that he has more
opportunities to produce on a 5-6 game schedule while Johan Santana can
give your team at most two starts to work with and it can be tricky to
make up ground if Santana gives you a so-so outing at best and leaves
you with a rather questionable ERA/WHIP.

For that reason, some
managers are on the boat of having a strong 4-5 man bullpen with 1-2
strong starters and 3-4 sufficient enough #3-4 quality starters to play
the matchups with, especially in leagues that deter streaming to some
extent and/or reward holds (which the H2HWS format does). The rationale
for a RP/MR-centered pitching staff is that starting pitching tends to
be devalued given the downside of fluctuating ERA/WHIP from week to
week. Such a strategy holds water and can be quite effective, but I
find that my most successful H2H teams are built from the opposite
strategy of being top-heavy in starting pitching, a strategy I lovingly
call, "The Control Freak's Guide to Pitching" (and yes, I am a control
freak or at least consider myself to be one).

"The Control
Freak's Guide to Pitching" is based off the similar strategy I would
endorse for hitting. In H2H, I must have 6-7 of my 9 batters capable of
hitting 30 HR's at the very least; the more quality the hitters, the
better obviously. The intent here is mainly just to compete in R, HR,
and RBI, with AVG/OPS a secondary pursuit and SB's the cherry on top.
In being in strong contention of the power counting categories, I can
lower my team's randomness in runs scored especially if my strongest
hitters have ample lineup protection. In hedging my team's power bets
with a few power hitters able to hit for average more consistently, I
could possibly get a better than average week in BA from my sub-par
average sluggers in the best-case scenario. I carry the same tenets for
pitching: 

• Carry a 5-6 man staff with an average K/9 rate of 8-9 at the least (or for the potential for a K/9 of 9 at the least)
• A gradual decline in value/skill set from the staff's #1 starter to the 5th/6th
• Less emphasis on saves and MR's (never pay a relatively high price for either)
• Less
  emphasis on ERA and WHIP, but assemble a pitching staff that on
  average, could possibly turn in a middle road ERA/WHIP of 3.75 and 1.15
  respectively

By sticking to this pitching philosophy, I want
to rack up in wins and strikeouts as much as possible, which works even
better in leagues without limits on moves and this allows me some
flexibility to spot start 1-2 starters from mid-week on if I'm trailing
in ERA and WHIP, especially if I'm in striking distance that leaves me
some margin of error (down 1.00 ERA, 0.10 WHIP). Under H2HWS rules, I
think there's added pressure to fetch 4-5 quality starters to build
around for this strategy to work, but because relievers (closers and
MR's) tend to be more scarce than starters, I wouldn't have to possibly
overpay for closers/relievers and concentrate on getting bargains on
offense and/or starting pitching.

Quite possibly, my best pitching staff in the H2HWS resides on my World Series team:

SP - Brandon Webb, Scott Kazmir, Tim Lincecum, Chad Billingsley, Dustin McGowan, Ervin Santana
RP - Trevor Hoffman, Brandon Lyon, Jonathan Broxton, Scott Linebrink

Unlike
my other two H2HWS squads, I couldn't manage to get the kind of offense
for my standards, drafting from a rather disadvantageous position (12th
of 14). Here's my rather sub-par offense as of now:

C - Ivan Rodriguez
1B - James Loney
2B - Jeff Kent
3B - Ryan Braun
SS - Hanley Ramirez
CF - Chris Young
OF - Nick Markakis
OF - Rick Ankiel
UTIL - Jim Thome
BN - Alex Gordon, Justin Upton

This
leads me to the heart of what I've been musing over of late:
replacement level in hitting and in pitching. Based off the team I have
currently, you would probably say it has a good deal of balance, with
the main advantage lying in the pitching quality. However, I wasn't
content with the offense I drafted, mainly because a week-to-week
inconsistency in average and in OPS could also translate into runs of
hot and cold form. Much of April was simply a microcosm of this
assessment and the last couple of weeks have led to lackluster
offensive performances, which is cause for great concern given that as
said before, pitching tends to be more random week to week, but a
stronghold in power hitting isn't as likely to run into such lapses in
randomness. This could lead into a fair share of weekly ties or results
of 7-5 swinging either way, results I would deem disappointing if they
happened with greater frequency.

With an underachieving Jim
Thome at the UTIL spot, it had gotten me to thinking if maintaining
such a potent 6-man rotation was more beneficial than trying to deal a
pitcher and Thome for a power hitter (say a Travis Hafner) that only
fares marginally better than Thome in the end. There was a time last
week where I toyed with the idea of trading Lincecum and new FA pickup,
Rick Ankiel for Josh Hamilton believing he could provide a much needed
power punch with the possibility of Hamilton pushing for 35 HR's.
However, Rick Ankiel could provide a 30 HR year with an average just
20-30 points lower than Hamilton's most reasonable expectation and with
a surging Lincecum, on his way to ascending to top 10 SP form, the
replacement value of Ankiel from Hamilton meant that Hamilton wasn't
the justifiable upgrade to give away Lincecum.

That said, I
believe there's a greater opportunity cost at playing the matchups/most
in-form player with hitters than with pitchers. As my offense stands at
the moment, I have 2 spots that I could openly platoon with 4 mid-tier
hitters (Gordon, Loney, Upton, and Ankiel) and in addition, a slumping
Thome firm in my UTIL spot. The chances of missing out in a more
beneficial outing in sitting a hitter in favor of another due to a
stronger matchup for the latter or for a possible rain-out are greater,
simply because the significance of mis-playing the matchups tends to be
greater with the everyday basis of making starting decisions with
hitting. Sporting a well-defined offense where the options to move your
lineup around can be a boon in that you can forgo that opportunity cost
and pass over that factor into pitching, where it's more comfortable.
Sitting a Chad Billingsley because of an ominous matchup gives you more
control of your team management. Playing multiple hitting options that
to some extent are more or less equal deserving (or not so deserving)
to start means that your variables for success are greater and so is
the opportunity cost of it backfiring on you or rewarding you. My
theory in H2H play is that if you lessen your variables for success by
concentrating on wins, strikeouts, and in the power departments and
lessen the opportunity cost of making crucial day-to-day decisions, you
can increase your chances for success in the process.

On that
note, in the H2H World Series yesterday, I sent Tim Lincecum to the
Northampton Squirels for Grady Sizemore, adding yet another power/speed
threat (not necessarily an OPS machine) to complement Hanley Ramirez,
Nick Markakis, Ryan Braun, and Chris Young. Sizemore is another quality
boost to an offense which could use a jumpstart and adds increased
roster flexibility given that Sizemore's CF-eligible and leaves the
likes of Upton, Gordon, and Ankiel as platoon options or possible trade
bait. Would the trade coup de grace also come with a formidable result
over Peitudas and would May greet all three Thrashers squads with wine
and cheese? We shall see...

H2H World Series

L.A. Thrashers 6, Peitudas 6

The
Thrashers had yet another daunting task on their hands in aiming to
dispatch the Brazilian champions, Peitudas. L.A.'s offense struggled
mightily in the previous week's triumph over the Psydney Psychos and it
was imperative for the Thrasher bats to rise to the occasion.

However,
it was the same old woeful song-and-dance for the Thrasher batters for
the second successive gameweek as the first homerun of the week came
off a Ryan Braun homerun last Thursday. By then, Peitudas held a 10 run
lead (18 to 8), a 4 HR lead, (5 to 1), a 4 SB lead (5 to 1), and a
marked edge in BA and OPS (.280 BA to .257 and an .817 OPS to .708)
after Thursday's games. Even though a comeback in the BA department
remained within the realm of possibility, the only category that ran
neck-and-neck was the RBI category, as Peitudas nursed a 1 RBI lead of
21 to 20.

In a stark contrast, the Thrashers pitching was
nothing short of magnificent. On top of a decent Tuesday start out of
Tim Lincecum, Wednesday was a banner day for the Angelenos' pitching
efforts as they turned in a line of 23.0 IP, 2 W, 2 SV, 18 K, 0.78 ERA,
0.87 WHIP. Chad Billingsley had posted his best outing for the
Thrashers, allowing only 1 ER in 7 innings at Florida to go along 8
strikeouts. Ervin Santana continued his sparkling start with 6 2/3's
innings work, allowing only an unearned run vs. Oakland, good enough
for a victory. On top of the two wins provided by Billingsley and
Santana, Dustin McGowan posted his most complete start of the year at
Boston. In addition, the Thrashers posted saves from Trevor Hoffman and
Brandon Lyon to bump up the weekly total to 3 saves for the week after
Thursday. On the flip side, Peitudas couldn't have had a more miserable
pitching week, as Peitudas' shallow pitching staff just became even
shallower as Phil Hughes was lost to the DL, not before relinquishing
an embarrassing 14.73 ERA, 3.00 WHIP in 3 2/3's innings work last
Tuesday. Peitudas couldn't recover from such a setback as quality
starts from Jake Peavy and Erik Bedard later in the week could not undo
such a terrible start. In fact, a Kerry Wood blown save added even more
woe to Peitudas' pitching. After Thursday, the Thrashers were only down
6-5 to Peitudas, with the Brazilians holding all 6 hitting categories
and the Thrashers leading in 5 of the 6 pitching categories, except for
holds which remained scoreless.

On Friday, Peitudas would start
to gain some separation on the offensive front despite 2 HR's from the
Thrashers' Ryan Braun and Nick Markakis. Peitudas' Chase Utley remained
in blistering mid-season form with a HR and Miguel Tejada pitched in
with a HR as well. The Californians couldn't make up any ground in the
HR and SB categories while Peitudas opened up a more well defined
advantage in runs (25 to 14), BA (.313 to .260) and had opened a 7 RBI
lead (32 to 25). The score would remain, 6-5 with the Thrashers needing
a hold to nod the series at 6.

Saturday was business as usual
for Peitudas as they continued to pad the offensive categories. Chase
Utley and Michael Bourn both homered while Miguel Tejada, Jason Bay,
and Conor Jackson continued their torrid form. However, it was Matt
Kemp that turned out to be a game-changer for the Brazilians, posting 7
R, 11 RBI, 6 SB, .436 BA, and 1.070 OPS. Peitudas would run away with
an 18 R lead, a .352 BA to go with a 1.009 OPS for the week, while
maintaining a 7 RBI lead (40 to 33). The likes of James Loney couldn't
dent Peitudas with a 6 RBI game including a homerun, but it was
Jonathan Broxton racking up a hold that ruined Peitudas' chances for a
victory that rendered Sunday to be an anti-climatic day with the result
firmly in hand. Peitudas would convincingly sweep all 6 hitting
categories whereas the Thrashers deserved to take a stranglehold of all
6 pitching categories.

Click here for box score.

Out-of-Town Scoreboard: Dukes jolted in Northampton

There
was plenty to talk about elsewhere in the World Series besides the
Thrashers-Peitudas fixture. Bottom-half laggards Northampton Squirels
captured the headlines with an immense victory over the league-leading
Edinburgh Dukes by a 9-3 margin. The Squirels offense laid siege to the
Dukes, thanks in no small part to Chipper Jones and Geovany Soto among
others, as they posted a 6-star offensive performance over a Dukes
offense that struggled to get off the blocks and the Squirels' pitching
split the decisions on the other half. It was a crucial triumph for
Northampton and puts a humbling end to the Dukes' flying start.

The
Manzen Marlins climbed to 2nd, carried by a 10-1 rout of the Psydney
Psychos, with a few close categories swinging the German side's way.
The Psychos' offense was a no-show for the most part and Manzen simply
had the better of the offensive categories despite Psydney being in
touching distance. The same could've been said for the pitching battles
as well.

It was a relatively tight series between the defending
champion London Knights and the Canadian representative, North York
Blues. Both the Knights and Blues received atrocious pitching efforts,
but the Londoners did enough to take 3 hitting and 3 pitching
categories for a 6-5 squeaker over the heavy-hitting Blues.

With
Manzen's 10-1 rout and the New Hampshire Goats' 6-5 triumph over the
Lower Saxony Tigers, the Thrashers drop to 4th place, but are tied for
3rd in winning percentage with the Goats. More importantly, the Dukes
lopsided defeat meant ground gained for the Thrashers anyway, just 2
games out of first place. Peitudas slid to 5th whereas the London
Knights reside in 6th and 6.5 games back, but considering that only 4.5
games separate the Knights from the 11th place Brisbane Ballz, a big
win or loss here or there can change the complexion of the standings
again next week.

H2HWS California South

SF Pacificans 7, L.A. Thrashers 5

Floodgates open for Pacificans

In
the California South side, after a relatively unscathed April start for
the Thrashers, the defending champions could not hold serve to a red
hot Pacificans offense and just fell short, 7-5 to the Bay Area outfit.
Despite the Pacificans' pitching falling into a big hole in ERA and
WHIP, they profited from a 3 HR Wednesday to overturn an early Thrasher
4-3 advantage and never looked back in taking home 5 of the 6 offensive
categories (except for an 8-3 Thrasher win in SB thanks in no small
part to Ichiro). A torrid hitting day for the Pacificans on Friday
broke open a 5-5 series tie to a 7-4 Pacificans advantage with a
mind-blowing 15-for-33 AB, 13 R, 5 HR, 11 RBI, 1 SB, .455 BA, 1.561 OPS
thanks to Dan Uggla, Rafael Furcal, Carlos Lee, and Nick Markakis to
more than make up the absence of one Alex Rodriguez.

The
Thrasher pitching was spectacular, as Matt Cain and Roy Halladay set
the tone of the week and quality starts from Aaron Harang, Clay
Buchholz, and Dustin McGowan were fantastic support to the two
two-start aces. The 4-man bullpen of Matt Capps, B.J. Ryan, Brandon
Lyon, and Brian Fuentes turned in key contributions in keeping the
ERA/WHIP svelte for the Angelenos and never putting the saves result in
doubt. Despite the Pacificans' asset of having 4 two-start SP's, the
likes of Oliver Perez, Brian Bannister, C.C. Sabathia, and Ian Snell
imploded to offset the early quality starts from Tim Lincecum and Ben
Sheets. Despite the failures of the Pacificans' staff, they remained
firmly in contention for wins, as a brilliant complete game outing from
Tim Hudson last Friday, kept the Pacificans and Thrashers nodded at 2
wins apiece heading into the weekend. However, after Saturday's games,
the Thrashers stayed close enough in BA and had overtaken the
Pacificans for the lead in strikeouts, to narrow the Pacificans lead to
6-5 with the possibility of stealing away a tie or even a narrow win.

A
pivotal Sunday had seen the Pacificans starting Lincecum, Sheets, and
Snell as opposed to the Thrashers' Roy Halladay and they elected to
leave Scott Kazmir on the DL given the roster logjam. It seemed like a
formality that the Pacificans would take back the K lead, but it was
Roy Halladay that posted the only win of the series with a brilliant
home start against the Chicago White Sox. Pacificans won the K
category, 54-47, meaning that Scott Kazmir's 5 K's wouldn't have made
the difference and the Thrashers were content to not make any hasty
drops without moving for a possible trade down the road. Pacificans' BA
slipped to .280, but the Thrasher bats couldn't capitalize and just
posted a .263 average for the series.

Click here for box score.

Out-of-Town Scoreboard: Saddlebackers widen the gap

In
other scores, the first-place Saddlebackers ran riot on the 2005
California champion Los Angeles Dodgers with an 11-1 shellacking. The
Saddlebackers had received an eye-popping offensive performance, as
Miguel Cabrera and Torii Hunter weren't the only bastions of offensive
support, as the likes of Russell Martin, Placido Polanco, and Rick
Ankiel contributed to the cause, entailing that beauty is just
skin-deep even for the most lightweight of offenses on paper.
Saddlebackers' pitching were sparkling, continuing to get outstanding
outings out of Chien Meng Wang and Adam Wainwright to complement Jake
Peavy and Edinson Volquez.

WR's California Blaze (formerly the
Western Metal Supply) tried to herald back their triumphant glory days,
but for the fifth week in a row, fell short of a series win as they
fell short to Missin the Mets, 7-5. Lake Arrowheads posted a huge win
over the Davis Destroyers, to catapult them into 2nd place whereas the
Monterey Park Donuts ascended to 4th with a 7-2 drubbing of the SF
Giants. With the Thrashers' loss, they fall to 6th, 10.5 games out of
1st but still only 3.5 games back from the 2nd place Lake Arrowheads.

H2HWS USA West

Scorpions sting the champions

On
the Western front, the Thrashers hit into the first significant
speedbump as they ran into a wall against the Seattle Scorpions to
loosen the champions' stranglehold of first place, as the Scorpions
snagged a vital win to ascend them into mid-table with a 7th place
finish after 5 weeks. The news wasn't much better when Alex Rodriguez
would be a scratch as he was moved to the 15-day DL whereas the news
was much more dire for Troy Tulowitzki as it's possible Tulowitzki
won't return from injury until after the All-Star Break. Ryan Theriot
will fill in for Tulowitzki at shortstop whereas Troy Glaus is a
band-aid fix for A-Rod.

After a 6-2 Monday advantage for the
reigning champions, the Scorpions took an 8-1 lead after Tuesday, with
B.J. Upton and Ryan Zimmerman hitting moonshots and Jose Reyes, who
would prove to be a thorn to the champions' side, stole a base. Matt
Cain and Roy Halladay were massive for the Scorpions' pitching cause,
whereas the Thrashers had the tough task of having to overcome such a
svelte start for the Seattle staff.

The Thrasher bats hit into a
lull for much of the week with Mike Napoli providing the lumber with 2
HR's, but the likes of Lance Berkman and Nick Markakis were vital parts
in stealing away runs and homeruns by week's end. Seattle's offense
wasn't overwhelming, but they provided enough RBI's and greater
consistency in AVG/OPS to have the better of it offensively, whereas
in-form Jose Reyes and Ichiro Suzuki led the Scorpions to a wide 11-4
SB margin.

Despite quality starts from Daisuke Matsuzaka, Tim
Lincecum, Zack Greinke, Dustin McGowan, and Aaron Harang, the
Thrashers' pitching staff couldn't come close to the Scorpions'
pitching performance in ERA/WHIP and it was more of an uphill climb
trying to undo the effects of Kerry Wood, Manny Corpas, and Dana
Eveland spiking the Thrashers' ERA/WHIP whereas the champions couldn't
eke out a win in pitching. Roy Halladay's Sunday win provided the only
win in the series for both sides and the bullpen of Rauch, Marmol,
Isringhausen, and Gagne powered the Seattle effort to seize saves and
holds.

Click here for box score.

Out-of-Town Scoreboard: Bonds 762* crushes Cafe Michigan to take 2nd place

The
Northern California champions, Bonds 762* pounded then-2nd place Cafe
Michigan for an 8-4 result and just came within a half-game of the
Thrashers for pole position. The Panolas Coyotes also had a huge week,
following up with a 9-3 rout of the Missouri River Jacks, which sends
the Illinois boys to 3rd. The Texas Two-Step had to rally some from a
double-digit deficit at the hands of the Sparks Red Sox Slayers, but
still fell short, 7-4 to the Nevadans. Also, the Houston Headhunters
climbed out of the cellar with a resounding 7-3 victory over Bilbos
Bunch to move up to 10th. With so many shakeups out west, only 10.5
games separate the 1st place Thrashers from the last place Texas
Two-Step.

Who's on Deck?

Cue those cliche
pay-per-view trailers to sell a world heavyweight boxing title fight,
as in the H2H World Series, it's a gargantuan matchup, a true
lollapalooza as two proud tribes go to war: 3-time defending champion London Knights
take on a squad that has yet to lose a H2HWS league in the reigning
two-time champions of California and reigning USA West champions.
Fittingly enough, both teams emerged from the draft as perennial
frontrunners to the World Series crown this season and even though the
Thrashers have held their end of the bargain getting through the first
5 weeks unbeaten, the Knights have struggled some, only resulting in a
6th place standing thus far and only 2 games over .500. Don't be
fooled, the Londoners are still far and away, the team to beat.

The
Knights sport arguably the best offense in the league, in three pillars
of power in Mark Teixeira, Miguel Cabrera, and Adam Dunn, two
high-average hitters in Joe Mauer and Derek Jeter, to go with their two
most recent acquisitions, Carlos Beltran and Brian Roberts. The
Londoners' bats have been relatively slow off the blocks aside from an
incredible performance against the Felixstowe Fury and much of it is
attributed to the white-hot start of Pat Burrell. The Thrashers will
hope for a much improved performance from their offensive core, as they
have been relatively anemic for their standards the last two and a half
weeks to hold serve from a possible onslaught from the Londoners.
Trading Tim Lincecum for Grady Sizemore is likely to be a big boost and
will complement Hanley Ramirez, Ryan Braun, and Nick Markakis among
others to hold the fort offensively.

On the flip side, London is
hoping that their pitching can flip the page. After losing Brett Myers
to trade and Rich Hill to demotion, the Knights' pitching is more
vulnerable than projected from the outset. Aaron Harang has been the
Londoners' rock, but can't afford mistakes from Randy Johnson, Ian
Snell, and Jeremy Bonderman to sully the Knights' chances. The
champions will rely heavily on the bullpen of Fuentes, Wilson, Ryan,
and Scot Shields to churn out positive results. As for the Thrashers,
they hope that Chad Billingsley and Dustin McGowan have turned the
corner with encouraging starts last week, as they will take the bump
twice this week. The Californians are hoping for the impressive form of
Ervin Santana to continue, with two starts under his belt. With the
return of Scott Kazmir and the ever-steady Brandon Webb on board, the
starting pitching remains in fine shape with the loss of Lincecum.

How's this for an undercard? In California South, the Thrashers take on the 1st place Saddlebackers,
11-1 winners over the Dodgers and runners-up in California North to
Bonds 762*. The Saddlebackers have been a pleasant surprise thus far,
but they hope the honeymoon isn't over while the Thrashers are still
mired in hibernation somewhat, but are too much of a quality side to
maintain their slumber. Will this be the week for a breakout? The
Thrashers are buoyed by two-start pitchers Aaron Harang and Dustin
McGowan this week to go along a fairly potent offense that has yet to
stretch out its legs in earnest.

In the West, the Thrashers will look to bounce back from a dismal series against a bottom-half side in the Michigan Panthers.
The Panthers have been hindered some by injuries, with Jimmy Rollins,
Jorge Posada, and John Smoltz on the shelf. The likes of Corey Hart,
Adam Dunn, and Stephen Drew have been relatively quiet for the Michigan
side while Ryan Braun and Hunter Pence are starting to heat up.
Michigan's pitching seems worthy of posting an adequate challenge with
Cole Hamels, Ted Lilly, A.J. Burnett, and Edinson Volquez holding the
fort alongside C.J. Wilson, B.J. Ryan, Santiago Casilla, and Chad
Qualls. The Thrashers loom large with three two-start aces in McGowan,
Matsuzaka, and Harang. The offense has been spotty at best for the
champions recently and will need the likes of Lance Berkman, Carlos
Beltran, and Nick Markakis to turn in brilliant performances.

All
in all, it was an abysmal week on all three fronts, but it's no need to
call May Day yet despite a difficult week ahead. Check back here next
week to see if the Thrashers bounce back. Until then, keep your clothes
on.

-Ray