Earlier in the week I outlined fantasy owners who, two weeks into the marathon that is the MLB season, were reaching for the panic button, ready for drastic changes. Today, we'll take a look at the flip-side of the coin. Invariably, every season players emerge, unexpectedly, and catch fire right out of the gates. Some go on to have great seasons (Ryan Braun, 2007), and others, well, they go somewhere else (Chris Shelton, 2006). Let's take a look at a few of 2008's most popular candidates, and discuss which road each might travel...
Nate McLouth, OF - PIT
'I am Mclovin.' That's exactly what 'Nasty' Nate's owners have been saying this April. After getting some Spring discussion due to a hot finish to the 2007 season, McLouth has entered 2008 in 5th gear, batting .380 and slugging .662 through his first 16 games for the Bucs. With 13 XBH and 15 RBI, the bandwagon's getting pretty full. McLouth swiped 22 bags (1 CS) in 329 AB a season ago, so the cries of a 30/30 breakout can be heard b the McLouth-a-maniacs. My projection for Nate is a bit more conservative; .270, 24 HR, 22 SB, and I know I'm going to take hell for that. Currently I have McLouth in one of my six leagues, after trading him in another. Which brings me to a good point -- shop him. Gauge the value that your league-mates have for him, and if you see something you can pounce on, jump on it. It's still early enough that most, like me, are labeling this as a hot start, and are waiting for the crash back to Earth to come; but he keeps this up a bit longer, and those without Nate on their roster will start believing as well.
Billy Butler, 1B/DH - KC
In case you didn't know, Superman wears Billy Butler pajamas. It's true. Had Butler's bandwagon not had several leftover charter members from a season ago, Butler could've qualified as a nice post-hype sleeper (and probably still did, in many leagues). Currently, Butler's batting .333 with one long-ball and 8 runs batted in. Fans of the second place Royals cite Jose Guillen's poor batting as negatively affecting Butler's early count-ables, and they may have a point. With Joey Gathright, Mark Teahen, and Mark Grudzialanek all seeing time in the top 3 of the Royal lineup, while Alex Gordon rakes in the 6-hole, one would think its only a matter of time before Gordon and plumper Butler find their ways in the 3 - 4 spots of the lineup, and fantasy owners start getting the production we heard about a season ago. If that happens soon, it will mean big things for Butler, who I am penciling in for .320, 21 HR, 90 RBI.
If he is owned by another owner in your league, see if you can get him cheaply, selling his lack of power to date, and KC's lineup woes. If you own him, be patient -- he's the real deal.
Josh Hamilton, OF - TEX
The hype train was full speed ahead in March for former drug addict, Josh 'Don't Call Me Alexander' Hamilton, but has since lost members who have jumped ship for the S.S. Billy Butler and the McLovin Express. The thing is, I'm not really sure why. All Hamilton has done this season is bat .294 with 3 HR and 16 RBI, which by the way, is only 2 behind AL Leaders Manny Ramirez and Joe Crede (18 apiece). Hamilton has gone hitless in just 3 games this season, 2 of which he recorded RBI in. He's walked as many times as he's struck out (8:8), and is firmly cemented in the 3-hole playing half his games at the launchpad in Arlington.
Admittedly, I thought in March that Hamilton was receiving too much hype (I heard whispers of him earning 1st Round status in 2009), but it seems now nobody can be bothered with Joshy Boy. If he can be had at a post-hype rate in your league, see what you can do, and if you have him, hold him, and enjoy the benefits. What kind of benefits? Well, something around .295, 29 HR, 105 RBI isn't out of the question, if he can just stay healthy.
Justin Upton, OF -- ARI
Some call him BJ's brother, while others insist that BJ is his brother. Regardless, both of the Upton boys have been getting their freak on this season; and its coming as no surprise to most. Batting .377 with a 1.092 OPS in 61 at bats this season, 'Jumpton' as some have labeled him, has sent 5 screamers leaving the park, driving in 13 and scoring 9 times himself. While he's yet to flash any of the speed we've heard about and he displayed in the minors, it's bound to be on its way. It is, though, hard to steal bases while you're busy trotting around them.
Upton is the most talented baseball player on this list (not to be confused with Hamilton's physical gifts), and his keeper upside surpasses everyone else's, due to that. He is, however, just 20 years old, so some expectations are, and should be, being tempered for 2008. I think that Justin's in the perfect situation with support and park in the desert, and think that he's destined for greatness; this year being no exception. To put it in perspective, two days ago I sent Johnny Cueto and Torii Hunter for Upton and Rich Hill in a keeper league -- that's how good he is. I think Upton finishes 2007 with something to the tune of .278, 27 HR, 89 RBI, 21 SB, with the upside for more RBI once he gets out of the 6-hole in Arizona.
Joey Votto, 1B -- CIN
The 'Next Big Thing' in Cincinnati has had to keep his bandwagon open extended hours since he's been in the starting lineup in each of the last four Reds games. In those four games, Joey's gone 5-for-13, making two balls leave the yard, and plating seven teammates. Suddenly those who were on in March, off in April, are back on the hype train as we approach May. Dusty's got him batting 7th, currently, as he starts his fifth straight game today, but one would imagine that Scott Hatteberg will get more AB than he deserves, especially if Votto scuffles at the dish at some point.
Assuming that Votto's time has come, and that he is the 1B of the present as well as the future, .300, 23 HR, 85 RBI is not out of the question, and like Upton, as he slides up the lineup, the RBI potential goes up. If his owner dropped him when he wasn't getting early AB, and nobody's jumped on him yet, which is unlikely, stop reading now and go grab him. I'll wait...
Okay, now that you're back, a few news and notes before I'm outta here...
... For those of you in Holds leagues, Duaner 'Dirty' Sanchez is back at the back-end of the Mets bullpen, and with the ineptitude of Aaron Heilman becoming more and more frequent, expect him to get the 8th inning looks -- last time he was in that role he was the best setup man in the game while healthy...
... Have woes at 2B? Take a peak at Jose Lopez, SEA. .280, 19, 90, 90 is not out of the question -- you could do a lot worse. I'm currently platooning him with Jeff Kent in Andy Berens' Yahoo! Early Mockery league, and am not far off from replacing Kent completely...
...EDIT:As I was writing this, Joey Votto went yahtzee off of Brian Shouse, who hadn't allowed a long-ball since 2006...
... Conor Jackson, a double shy of the cycle, stretched the double that would've accomplished the feat for him, into his second triple of the game the other night. Kudos to Co-Jack -- I don't know of many who would've done that...
That's it from me. Time to watch the Mets.
Until next time...
Your projection for McLovin is like Corey Hart's '07. What gives? I shouldn't have pulled the trigger on the McLovin for Ichiro trade that landed on my doorstep then, right?
I have to tell ya, that ACS actually had some good insight into buying high on Justin Upton in my dynasty league, dealing Dice K and Homer Bailey for Upton. I thought it was a good deal at the time, a greater one at that now. Personally, I'm holding onto Upton in the WS unless I get a mind-blowing offer.
Yeah, that's not a very conservative projection on Nate, but I do think he's a good player, and solid all-around contributor. He's got 3 HR already, so maybe giving him 18 from May forward, plus whatever else he can do before he cools off a bit, puts him in the 21+ range for power. One of his 2 CS so far was a pick-off, and his 22/1 SB/CS ratio of a season ago makes me think he'll be running all season, so with 22 SB in 350 or so AB a year ago, I'll give him 20 more this seaso with 450 assumed AB left to have. The RBI total rests on him playing in the 3-hole; while he's been bounced between that and lead-off (where he bat today), will either go towards his R or RBI totals -- although that's why I neglected to project them. One thing is for sure -- he is stroking it to the gaps right now; another double today, his 10th this month!
I have Superman pajamas. Slippers too.
and only Mets fan would recommend Duaner Sanchez after two innings of baseball. The dude has a career 1.37 WHIP, had one good year at Shea two years ago and is coming back from all kinds of physical issues. Tell the truth, you were just thinking of something, anything, so you could use the words Dirty Sanchez, huh? :)
If you want a solid holds sleeper, one with experience and a plus track record, don't go with the ex Dodger, grab the ex Friar, grab this guy.
I just did.
As for McLovin. I will admit, he was nowhere on my radar this spring. I was late preparing for the season, and when I drew up my lists on excel, I saw the talent on Milwaukee, Chicago, Cincinnati and even Houston. Then I simply drew a line through Pittsburgh. Both Pitching and Hitting. Snell excluded, cus I already owned the guy.
I hope McLouth keeps it up, but I would recommend anybody that owns him to sell now. You can get a solid return on a late round pick, and probably fill a hole somewhere else. At worst add another starter to the mix. Even if McLouth does go up a little more in value, it does not hurt you overall, cus you got yours. Its a win win for you. If he comes crashing back to earth, ala Chris Shelton, you have destroyed the risk reward.
Ray got Ichiro, and that boy ain't coming back to earth anytime soon.
go get your reward.
I had McLouth as a pickup in my dynasty league and he was a fill-in for me when Sheffield was shelved. I won't deny that he has a good bat and could post 20 HR with the good gap power he has, but I wouldn't count on the average being up there as it has been, if he does hit for that kind of power.
I thought I'd pick McLouth up in Cali this year thinking he could be more than a hot bat that I could've used for trade bait, but I wouldn't have anticipated that Tony (SF Pacificans) would swing Ichiro for my McLouth and Snell, which is a really big buy high as I've ever seen. If McLouth does wind up like a Curtis Granderson minus the gaudy run total, the deal levels off for Pacificans quite a good bit, but I'd rather take my chances on Ichiro, needless to say. Ichiro doesn't really have a high reward in my opinion, but carries minimal risk if any. I still have the issue of trading one of my OF given that either Chris B. Young or Corey Hart is my 5th worst option, but I'll let that take care of itself.
They cancelled Salmon season this year, so I'm gonna be the one swimming up stream. I'm gonna buck the trends this year. I sold Ichiro for the 'Smell of McLovin' (Snell and McLouth). Right now McLouth is hitting everything coming his way. Sure at some point that will cool off. But I still am looking for a possible 25/25 or 30/30 .280. Ichiro's not putting up that power. I'll get sb's elsewhere (Furcal). Also, my rotation was in desperate need of attention. I'm looking to get at least 10-12 W's, 150K's and -4.era from Snell. While still having N. Markakis, C. Lee, J. Votto and J. Hermida to fight for playing time in the OF.
I currently have J.C. on Sabatical (C.C. Sabathia) on the other end of the buy/sell spectrum, where there seems to be a limited market. Oh the whoo's of being in a league where guys pay attention to the details and are willing to tell you about it.
So, Nate's season AVG is now under .300, as he's dropped 44 points since the last day in April. The Earth must hurt when you come crashing back to it. He's still hitting some dingers, with 12 on the season, but he's batting .229 in May (100 points lower than April), and has driven in 11 men, as opposed to the 21 in April. I think he finishes with 20 - 21 HR, even though he's already 60% of the way there. The time to sell may have already passed -- and if it hasn't, get the best value you can. There are so many more useful players going forward than McLovin'.
With respect to Billy Butler, as Lloyd Christmas proclaimed in 'Dumb & Dumber' after reading the name Samsonite from the briefcase, "... I was way off!" I'll just leave it at that -- Butler will probably not reach a single one of my projections. He does not look good at the dish.
Hamilton is a freak. The guy has 4 more RBI than Games Played, which as we approach June, is unbelievable. I mean, it's no Juan Gone with 100 RBI at the break, but hey, it may be... If he stays healthy, his numbers are going to be gaudy.
Here's a startling stat for Justin Upton -- 48 strikeouts! However, for fantasy purposes he is batting .300, and the countable stats should be reasonable enough to keep him going all season. If you can sell an owner on a fall from grace due to the K's, he could be a good player to buy.