Ok, so what would you say if I told you I was thinking of drafting a right-handed pitcher who doesn’t throw hard, doesn’t strike batters out, doesn’t play for a powerhouse team, and was born during the Lyndon B. Johnson administration?
Ok, and what if I told you aside from one injured season, he’s recorded 40+ Saves in 9 of the last 11 seasons, hasn’t had a WHIP over 1.20 since 1993, and last year allowed 7 more Hits than he recorded Saves? Looking back further, the Hits to Save ratio would be 2 in ’06, 9 in ’05, 1 in ’04, etc., etc., etc. Oh, he’s also the all-time MLB Saves leader.
Enter Trevor Hoffman, the ageless wonder, who plays for a team located so far west; I can’t even imagine I’m talking about him. Completely goes against everything the Bias is about.
At least I have a good reason to talk about The Hoff – two of the most intelligent fantasy baseball minds you’ll find on the internet, wrveres and JTWood, made a small wager regarding Mr. Hells Bells.
The Terms
Much like Jerry, George, Kramer, and Elaine in Seinfeld’s ‘The Bet’, after a few back-and-forth discussions, the two agreed upon the following terms:
40 Saves / 7.00 K/9 / 1.15 WHIP
Wrveres, being the loyal Madre fan, took the over, with JT confidently taking the under. Let’s take a look at what’s being waged here…
Saves: Since 1996, Hoffman has recorded 40+ Saves in each and every season with the exception of ’97 (37), ’02 (38), and ’03 (0, only played 9 G). Odds are he’ll get enough opportunities to achieve 40 Saves again this season – one can only imagine that regardless of performance, the Pads aren’t going to be removing the man, the myth, the legend, from his 9th inning duties.
K/9: Hoffman didn’t achieve the benchmark 7.00 K/9 last season (6.91), but did in ’06 (7.14), ’05 (8.43), ’04 (8.73), and on. Now, here the debate arises; do you think Hoffman will return to his > 7.00 K/9 form that he has held for his entire career, or does the downward trend that has been transpiring over the past decade continue, and does he fail to meet the 7.00 criterion for a second straight year? This could be the deal breaker, right here.
WHIP: The Wild Card. 1.15 is the number we’re dealing with here; a number that Hoffman has not surpassed since 2002 (1.18). Since ’02 he’s registered WHIPs of 0.91, 1.11, 0.97, and 1.12. He has a career 1.05 WHIP. History is on his side, but his FB% took a ride North last season to 51.8%, up 6.5% from his career average. Looking at projections, Bill James puts Hoffman’s WHIP at 1.07, but both CHONE and Marcel have him hitting the over at 1.19 and 1.25, respectively – apparently they are seeing the same thing as JTWood.
The Pot
Now, what is on the line? Last I checked, the purse was up for grabs. I’m asking you, the readers, for some proposals. Name your purse, the pot, and I will pitch it to these two gentlemen. Together we will come to terms on something acceptable, fair, and hopefully comical.
Also, let’s hear you weigh in on this one – who’s side are you taking? Wrs or JTs? Let’s hear some projections.
For the record, I’m taking the over… Until next time…
Offspeed kills!!
and Trevor Hoffmans k/9 through out his career is 9 something ... not 7.
I am backing wr
go padres!
9.638 to be exact, but he's been a far cry from that for years now. I believe the last time he topped 9 was 2002 -- his K's took their dip immediately following that injury shortened 2003 season. He must've really changed his approach after that; it's quite impressive he's managed to remain as successful as he has.
Yes.
It has dropped to 9.6 .. that should give you some idea just how impressive the man is/was. Shame you guys east of the hudson never heard of him.
another thing. If this is Trevors last year, he will be eligible for the hall at the same time as Maddux, Glavine, Schilling and possibly Randy Johnson.
the guy was that dominate for that long, and he may not even be a first ballot guy ..
sucks.
He is all over the record books, and some of those records won't be broken, and he is not a first ballot hof.
of all the injustices.
We at East Coast Bias have never heard of this Hoffman guy. His games are on at 1 am -- we ae sleeping then. We know of John Franco, Mariano Rivera... want to talk about them?
WR,
What records are you thinking won't be broken? Hoff comes from only the second generation of the modern closer. It is hard to imagine that any of these career records they are putting up will stand for an extended length of time.
Hoff has been a tremendous closer, but I would take the over on this.
His career saves for one
Already the position is becoming specialized towards flame throwers, and those flame throwers won't last as long.
Rivera won't catch him. Heck Trevor hasn't even set the bar yet.
His consistency records. His 40 saves in a season records.
Very few closers will be given not only the opportunity, but the means.
By virtue of Trevor playing for the friars, and therefore having lots of low scoring games, San Diego is routinely a top the save opps boards every season.
For Trevor it was almost a perfect storm. Job Security like no other, and an ideal team in which to rack up stats.
It helps a bunch that he is damn good as what he does too.
The problem with Hoff's career record is that there are so many pitchers that are coming up through high school and college being groomed for the closer role. It is certainly going to take some longevity to catch him, but when you look at players like K-Rod who is a third of the way there and only 25 years old I don't see any way the record holds unless Hoff hangs on until he is 50 and runs it up ala Pete Rose.
It all goes back to pitching
Ha, they can't eve get through a whole clip without showing a highlight of THE DOMINICAN TORPEDO at the very end!
Have you ever checked out Alyssa's MLB blog? I would be divorced if my wife ever knew how infatuated I was with her since I was a kid.
http://alyssa.mlblogs.com/
a third of the way there? Fransisco Rodriguez is barely 25% of the way there. Granted he has had an early start to his career and yes, it is quite an impressive career, but again he is a flame thrower. The odds of Rodriguez missing a few seasons do to injury are high. He won't be tossing the ball like he is now, not at age 35. Not if Jeff Novitzy has anything to say about it . lol
Again, it must be repeated
The mark hasn't even been set yet.
Trevor is coming off his 4th consecutive 40 save season. He posted an ERA+ of 135 last year. He is not toast.
In 2006 he was second in Cy Young voting. I gotta believe his teammate stole his votes last season ..
4 consecutive 40 save season, highly likely to get his 5th .. ..
and you all are writing him off.
re markable
Your mancrush for Hoffman is making you completely miss the point I was making. It has nothing to do with writing Hoffman off. It has everything to do with the closer position being in its infancy relative to baseball. Maybe Hoffman goes on to close for another 10 or so seasons and makes the mark something incredibly difficult to surpass, but I really doubt it. He excellence late in his career is exactly why I don't see the mark lasting more than a couple decades after he retires.
The amount of wear and tear that is put on closers anymore is extremely minimal. They very rarely average more than an inning per appearance anymore. Hoffman has either been right near 1 IP per appearance or under it for the last 10 years, almost all of which have been 40 save seasons. The chances for the next great closer having an extended career are getting better and better.
A corrolary on that is that 40 save seasons are becoming less and less a rarity. Of the 110 40 save seasons in baseball history, over 80% have been in the last 15 years. Almost 33% have been in the last 5 years. More closers are getting more saves, Hoffman is getting to benefit from that at the end of his career. Some young whippersnapper is going to benefit from it for their entire career.
Closers are getting the chance to take over the role at a younger age. K-Rod has recorded 144 saves by the same age that Hoffman recorded his first. He already has 3 40 save seasons (which would be 1/3 of Hoffman's record).
Managers don't seem to care how great their numbers are except for how many saves they convert. Borowski is a perfect example that once a player is established in the closer role they are probably going to need to die in order to lose the job.
Oh how I heart Alyssa.
you know just glancing over Fransisco's numbers ..
he is already showing a declining strikeout rate, and an increased walk and hit rate.
i have a hard time believing any pitcher can have major league success for a sustained period walking as many batters as his does. are there exceptions, probably.
I like Fransisco I do .. Time will tell i guess, but i don't see him doing it.
damn she is a doll .. isn't she
yum!.
i have had her blog on rss for a while, i guess i don't check it often as i should.
i don't deny the man crush
Just wondering if you guys saw the commercial for MLB The Show where Ryan Howard puts a hurt on one of Hasselhoffman's 82-MPH fastballs and sends it out of PETCO?
Foreshadowing?
i just watched it like five minutes before you posted this comment ..
i refrained from sharing out of anger and disgust.
MLB hates the padres. Chic's dig the long ball, not change-ups i guess.
It's a beautiful thing... ain't it?
everybody is getting all excited over a video game.
lets look at real life ..
Padres
hang on, that can't be right..
nope it is spot on. :)
The guy hits a HR every 11.3 AB. The only one whose beaten the odds thus far is Clay Hensley. Time till tell the final chapters of this story. :)
0.2 IP, 1 BB, 3 H, 1 HR, 4 ER, L, BS -- Ouch
I needed the Berkman HR in 2 of the 3 leagues I had him in. No complaints, but he gave quite a rise in my ERA in the WS.
1.0 IP, 1 H, 1 BB, 1 ER, L -- Ouch
Hu's your daddy.
Trevor Hoffman apologists are everywhere. There is an army of them ----
sitting in the bleachers, lounging in the dugout, perched on press row,
standing on street corners, hiding in hedges and lurking in dark alleys.
Watch
out for them. They have passion. They have desire. They have Hoffman
shrines, complete with candles and homemade bobbleheads, set up in
their attics.
These people adore Hoffman as if he were Mother
Teresa, only taller and with more stubble. The man can do no wrong. He
just can't. Hoffman's Army is convinced of that.
So if a guy
digs a ball out of the dirt and knocks it for a crucial hit, as Tony
Gwynn Jr. did late last season in the Padres' crushing loss to the
Milwaukee Brewers, Hoffman's Army dutifully explains how it was a
"great pitch."
How any pitch that is hit can be classified as
great is baffling to me. But I don't pretend to be a baseball savant.
We'll let George Will and Bob Costas ponder that one.
Hoffman's
strikeout-strikeout-strikeout ninth innings have gone the way of the
Sony Betamax. The chiming of "Hells Bells" now signals a high-wire act,
not an execution. Square-on-the-barrel hits and warning-track fly balls
are mainstays in the ninth-inning mix these days.
Great stuff if
you are the sort of Padres fan who enjoys swimming with sharks, eating
raw poultry or playing golf in an electrical storm.
Hoffman
could be throwing 68 mph fastballs being converted to moonshots landing
in El Cajon, and still his supporters wouldn't waver. "His changeup is
still the best in baseball," they'll tell you, "drops right off the
table."
A one-pitch pitcher is hardly fearsome. Sort of like a boxer with only a serviceable left jab.
In
his first four appearances this season, Hoffman had two losses, allowed
two home runs and carried an ERA of 12.27. Those numbers, combined with
the blown save against the Colorado Rockies that cost the Padres a
playoff berth last season, are beyond worrisome.
Still, it's
only right that Marc is over there arguing everything might be OK.
Sooner or later, Marc figures, there's a chance Hoffman will be
dominant again. Or not.
Remember, though, that Marc is the guy
who for years has picked Sergio Garcia to win every major golf
tournament on the calendar. He's due, right?
It's a sucker's bet, just like the Padres' stubborn refusal to trot out anyone other than Hoffman in the ninth.
Sergio never wins. Neither does Marc, even if he, too, is long overdue.
North County Times
I should have never linked you to the think factory. what was i thinking.
Another BS for Father Time.
can somebody explain to me how Glendon Rusch has a job ... grrr