I am constantly seeing 'Players You Must Have in '08', 'Deep Sleepers in '08', 'Late Round '08 Steals', etc., etc., etc.
But what about the players who are staring you in the face as your pick approaches, and you know that deep down, you must pass? Who are these mystery men of 2008?
Well, here's a few...
1. Albert Pujols - Whoa! Say it ain't so, Brendan! This is the concensus #2 Overall Pick, the All-World 1B Slugger who ended Brad Lidge's reign of terror! Since the news of Fat Albert barely being able to straighten his arm broke, his ADP has dropped to 7, but I wouldn't even take him there. In the 1st Round, I'd rather have Ryan Howard or Prince Fielder as my First Baseman. As I stated previously, I feel Ryan Howard will be the #1 Overall Fantasy Performer in '08, and I don't think Prince will be all that far behind, so for me, rolling the dice on Pujols' health is something I will allow another owner in my league to do, with the understanding that if he returns to his NL MVP form, as he very well may, I won't be disappointed that I passed on him.
2. Carl Crawford - For years, I've been hearing what a 5-tool fantasy beast 'CC' is, yet I've never seen him drive in more than 81 Runs. He's only topped the 15 HR mark one time (18, 2006), and hasn't even scored 100 Runs in either of the last two seasons. He's going to steal you 50 bases, sure, but in early Round 2 (Crawdaddy's ADP is 13), I'll take Alfonso Soriano, Grady Sizemore, Carlos Beltran, or Vladimir Guerrero, for my money.
3. Eric Byrnes - At the beginning of the 5th, I'll let my leaguemates select Eric Byrnes, who squeeked out 179 Hits a season ago. Bill James, CHONE, and Marcel all have him coming back to Earth in the Run and RBI departments, as well as returning to a more normalized AVG. Just three picks earlier, Nick Markakis, who I am huge on, is being drafted -- if you can land Markakis, do so; otherwise wait for Corey Hart, who I am also huge on, and is going nearly 2 entire Rounds later. If you can, land both Markakis and Hart -- you will not be sorry.
4. Middle-Tier Closers - Now hold on just one second, sir! You cannot avoid an entire class of players... Sure I can, and I am. After your top few Closers, every damn one of them seems to have a major flaw that makes me wince at the thought of their blow ups -- Chad Cordero's pitch inefficiency trends and LD%, Soriano's HR allowed, Hoffman's regression (coupled with San Diego's certainty in not removing him from the role regardless of performance), Lidge's inconsistencies in getting out Lefties, then Righties, along with a switch-hit heavy NL East (Beltran, Reyes, Teixeira, C. Jones...). The one closer in this entire caste who I can't find a fundamental flaw in and am trying to get everywhere possible is Joakim Soria of the Kansas City Royals.
Other players I'm avoiding... Kelvim Escobar, Carlos Guillen, Torii Hunter, Mike Lowell, Juan Pierre...
Feel free to let me know who you're avoiding, too!
EDIT: Check out the latest Sports Illustrated cover... definitely not a player to avoid in 2008...
Check out Bill James Online and Andy Behrens' Blog which mentions yours truly, to see what it's all about.
Until next time...
I never bought the hype with this guy .. sure it is a ton of stolen bases, but that is it.. Needless to say, i don't think i have ever owned Carl Crawford.
Maybe once.
and you are wrong about Trevor.
He had a bad final game, and that is what you remember. The hit that Tony Gwynn got off him was a good hit, the pitch was out of the zone and Hoffman had Gwynn fooled. Junior just put good wood on it .. that's all .
Nothing in his numbers from last season suggests San Diego should remove him from the role. That is insane.
He is the greatest closer ever.
why you avoiding Hunter and Pierre?
this is a great year to buy low on Pierre.
I think Pierre is possibly being undervalued -- however, my opinion on him seems to be the same as he Dodgers' -- I like him, but I just don't think he's going to make it into my lineup. With playing time in question, I just can't justify taking him when OF like Ellsbury, Victorino, and Johnny Damon are being taken at similar places, and are more locks to get the ABs. I do agree, though, that the upside of Pierre if he gets a load of AB, is possible -- I'm just not willing to assume that risk.
As for Hunter, despite two strong showings in '06 and '07, I just can't get high on him. He's 32 years old and I just don't trust him to maintain his SLG. I'd rather Matt Kemp, Corey Hart, or Brad Hawpe, who are all being drafted after Hunter. By all means feel free to sell me on Torii, though.
what is the average draft position for ..
curious ..
if you have it handy. eh I will go look it up
No reason at all, eh? What do you call this or this (look at the FB%)?
So his core stats are slipping, he's got the record, and he's had all off season to stew on his late-season collapse. You never know where his mind could be on Opening Day. I read that ESPN article about the Gwynn hit. He admitted that with Gwynn up at the plate, he started seeing things differently. It can be difficult to turn that kind of stuff back off.
On top of that, you know the Pads would never consider benching him if he stops performing. He'd go out there and continue to pitch poorly even if it could cost the team another playoff berth.
I'm not saying the guy will utterly collapse a la Brad Lidge, but I completely believe there are some big warning signs with Hoffman. I'll avoid him this year, thank you, and for a categorical league, I'll grab a guy that will get me some Ks.
His fly-ball percentage is up, and he is not striking out a batter an inning anymore at age 50. That is your argument?
He is not 32 anymore I'll give you that, but the dude is smart as hell. He is a pitcher living off a 50 MPH fastball for gods sakes. For a decade!
You realize he plays primarily in petco right? Having a massive outfield like that allows pitchers to approach batters just a little differently. Especially when you have a great center fielder.
If he was a fly-ball pitcher at booze park, then you might have a bitch. Until then I am not buying a few ticks in his FB% as gloom and doom.
and let's not forget .. the game is Saves. He led the league in saves in 2006, and was third in the league last season with 42. Would have been 43, but junior put good wood on a ball.
Valverde-ARI 47
Cordero-MIL 44
Hoffman-SDP 42
Saito-LAD 39
Cordero-WSN 37
Add in a whip around one and I'll take him.
You go ahead and pass!!
offspeed kills
Brad Lidge locked down 19 games from mid-July on last year...don't you read my blog JT?
In the last draft I participated in, here are their draft positions: Ellsbury (129), Victorino (127), Damon (141), Pierre (132), Bourn (213)...
So there was a little speed run in and around round 10-11 in that draft..
Pierre is not a bad risk at 10-11.
Bourn 100 picks later is the best gamble, but I have no reservations about taking Pierre in round 11.
Bourn was selected by me at 213 in that draft, as was Damon at 141 (which I wasn't thrilled about, in retrospect)
I like Bourn this year. I know you do to. Nice snag.
____________________________
JT .. I'll bet you a delicious chocolaty frosty, that Trevor Hoffman has 40 saves this year, and WHIP below 1.2.
I already know you are going to come back with "but in a points league" ..
pass.
40 saves. 1.2 whip ...
you like frostys? Maybe the misses does.
If he accepts, I definitely have my next blog subject
'The Bet' -- it'll be like an episode of Seinfeld, starring Trevor Hasselhoffman.
I'm complaining about his K-rate and FB%, and you come back with WHIP and Saves? At least give me one cat that fits my complaints. And a 1.20 WHIP? I would have to be predicting a pure and total collapse for that to happen.
I'll give you your 40 saves. I want 50 Ks or a K/9 of 7.5 (your pick). Then we'll throw in a 1.15 WHIP for good measure. Seems like a good middle ground to me. Want a min IP here in case of freak injuries?
at least you recognize!!
make it a k/9 of 7, and you are on.
What's on the line here, boys?
I agree about Byrnes, Escobar, Lowell, and Pierre.
I know I am a Rays fan, but I have to make a case for CC
I know he has yet to get over 81 RBI, but look at his numbers since coming into the league at age 20
2003 - 5 HR, .362 SLG, .671 OPS
2004 - 11, .450, .781 OPS
2005 - 15, .469, .800 OPS
2006 - 18, .482, .830 OPS
2007 - 11, .466, .821 OPS
He is only 26 right now and his power has increased every year, but last year, which he was severly limited by a wrist and knee injury. I think he will bounce back and get over 20 HR this year. Add to the fact that he will hit above .300, steal 50 bags, and have a much better offense around him, I would take him over Sori and Grady, but behind Carlos and Vlad
Others I have distanced myself from:
Pence - wrist injury and coming off a great rookie campaign is being pick to high for me.
Zimmerman - Just for this year coming off the wrist injury and still on a bad offensive team.
Joe Mauer - he is taken way to early for a guy that really only has a better BA than catchers taken after him
Manny -- I know he is on the Sox, but I think this is the year that starts that decline and he is taken earlier than I would like
Just some of the ones I noticed. Great job as usual Hort in getting a great subject to write on
see here is the thing JT ..
you are arguing that Hoffman should be avoided because of his k's.
the difference in K's between a 39 year old Trevor Hoffman and your average closer is a about 20 K's a season. Not nearly enough to even make up 1 fantasy point in roto in the grand scheme of things.
But yet he is about 10 saves or more, better than your average closer. Every year! That 10 saves could easily be 2-3 points in the standings. Especially in the saves category.
San Diego is routinely at or near the top in save opportunities each and every year. They are a team built around pitching, in an extreme pitchers park, in a pitchers division .. and you are saying "avoid" the closer, because some kid laced a triple off him last fall, or his FB% is up a tick.
it is crazy. It really is.
where is the logic in that?
40 saves
1.15 WHIP
50 Ks or 7.0 K/9 (either)
Min IP on this or not?
Hort, I believe the bet was a frosty from Wendys.
The bet is a frosty from wendys .. And no minimum innings pitched ..
Trevor Hoffman is a fricking horse!
he will be out there all season, you can count on it.
Let's get it on!