Well, it's go time folks. Another Premier League season is set to kick off this weekend and Diving in the Box is back to be your personal advisor for all things related to your fantasy football/soccer/futbol team, ranging from buy and sell decisions to helping you spot the next Amr Zaki, so that you can brag to your fellow mates in your Monday watercooler chat about how you hopped aboard the (insert once-obscure overnight sensation's name here) bandwagon before anyone else knew that lad's name. If you'd be so kind, just say your mate from a blogging site called RotoDatabase gave you a bit of a nudge in the right direction, in this case. Also, I'll highlight a few personal tips on how to build and manage your fantasy squad. Of course, you're probably eager to get this week's fantasy player tips in this opening gameweek, but please keep that shirt buttoned and read on...
Notes for new readers:
If you've just discovered my blog, two things for you: thanks and welcome for checking out my fantasy series. Second, I tend to write this blog with the Yahoo game in mind, although I do make references to the Premier League's official game, which I handily refer to as the Americanized acronym, "EPL". I play in a handful of fantasy league games on different sites and for different leagues (I play La Liga, Serie A, and Ligue 1 religiously) and what I find is there are two kinds of salary cap games: the Yahoo version and the EPL rendition. Most games you'll find on ESPN or Facebook follow a similar pricing scale system to that of the EPL's game where the prices between the different positions are relatively distributed on an even basis. Like the EPL game, movements in pricing points are based on let's say for every 20-30,000 players buying/selling said player. Then, you have the Yahoo game which allows for dynamic pricing. So, assuming that Wayne Rooney has a massive week, his value is more likely to shoot up 3-4 million with managers actively buying as opposed to the EPL game where Rooney's stock is more likely to move up by just .1 or .2 for every X thousand number of managers add said player. As a result, you'll see a much more stratified transfer market in the Yahoo game than you would in EPL.
It's already too late for me to recommend to you which type of league is for you. I play in both Yahoo and EPL annually and I'll say I like Yahoo's pricing system better (it's more realistic although the sale of a player at just the price purchased is a downer) but EPL has better customizable league features, such as H2H play.
General tips:
Before previewing the week, here's some tips for the newbie or novice fantasy football manager:
- Realize what "performing to price" means: This is the vital bit in knowing how to win this game, week to week and for the season. Here's where a knowledge of the game outside of fantasy comes to good use because an appreciation of how a player is consistently implemented in tactics and formation can give you some understanding of whether or not a player can match price point for fantasy point. Sometimes, all you need is a rudimentary understanding of what's a good matchup and what's not. No matter the scope of your footballing knowledge, let a player's history and performance be your guide. Most importantly, ask yourself if said player can match his price by either outproducing it or "living" up to it. Let's say you bought Frank Lampard for 20 million. If the norm of what you can get out of him on raw average is, 13-14 points per week, then as long as he's giving you double digit points close to each week, he's "living" up to his price tag. Let's also assume you bought Wolverhampton's Michael Kightly for 5 million pounds. If he can give me 4-5 points on average, he's "lived" up to his price tag and even if he's scoring below that, who cares, as long as I can afford a couple of players who can carry your team's total. Now, if he goes beyond 7 points a week, I have myself quite a bargain I'd be hard-pressed to sell any day of the year, and if he's in between 5-7 points a week, that should also be considered production over the break-even line, even if it is marginal.
- Points per week is important, but don't live by it: Aston Villa's Gabriel Agbonlahor had a relatively healthy scoring average, but that overshadowed his tendency to score big one week and to go dormant the next five weeks on the fantasy ledger. That's an extreme example, but in any case, remember that weekly averages give you an idea of which players are likely to either come up big consistently or aren't as prone as other players to peaks and valleys week to week. As such, value players for a high weekly average that truly sets them apart from the pack, but also value players who can give you similar averages to a better priced option, for a thinner price tag.
- There is such thing as position scarcity: This goes hand in hand with the points per week bit. Players who give you a markedly better scoring average, relative to the pack in his position, indicates scarcity. This indicates that in building a good squad, you can buy top-dollar for a lad who is a premium for his position and then, dip into positions that are deeper and get a good option who is likely to recover more points than you would otherwise would have in getting an inferior player at the scarcer position. In general, a top midfielder is harder to come by - more so, without Cristiano Ronaldo - than say, a solid forward. It's easier to replace Robinho with Carlton Cole than it is to replace Frank Lampard with Luka Modric is basically what I'm getting at. Also, it's important to know that the weekly averages between defenders was on an even playing field. When you take away Nemanja Vidic and Joleon Lescott running away with top scoring amongst defenders, you had a very steady progression down the points table amongst other alternatives. This leads me to my next tip...
- Never pay for clean sheets: Much of a defender's value is reliant on whether or not he grabs a clean sheet. Once the opposition bags a goal, there's no chance of a clean sheet and the defender's value for the week takes a hit unless he scores on the odd goal and/or gives the odd assist. Goalkeepers are more sensitive to this, as they would need to stop more shots for saves to redeem what was lost with their clean sheet potential. In last season's EPL game, it wasn't Petr Cech, Pepe Reina, or Edwin van der Sar crowned as top scoring keeper, but rather Fulham keeper Mark Schwarzer at a price level 1.5-2.0 million below the Big Four keepers. You also had West Ham's Robert Green and Everton's Tim Howard not far behind in the top seven. The moral of the story is, if you can play the matchups and platoon defenders/keepers, you can eventually get nearly the same weekly value (or even exceed it) as a higher-priced defender/keeper. This year, you should give greater weight to starting Stoke and Fulham defenders/keepers at home. Also, pay attention to sides who are generally anemic in the scoring department (Hull, Portsmouth, Blackburn, Birmingham) or those clubs who have trouble scoring away from home (Manchester City, Fulham).
- Spreading the wealth doesn't always work: I've seen some managers attempt to allocate about even funds to goalkeeping, defense, midfield, and up front, in the rationale that they've built a balanced enough side with lesser room for sunken points or sunken positions. The problem is twofold, one, you'd miss out on the upside of a top player scoring a boatload of points and two, you're missing out on bargains who can put up points similar to someone you bought for a little more, for balance's sake. What's more is, a balanced budget generally doesn't keep your team foolproof of sunken points, all the same anyway. Once again, knowing who's living up to their price tags is important. Not only can I buy potential bargains and afford top studs simultaneously, I can sell a stud not quite living up to his price tag (or worse yet, is injured) and buy myself two productive players living up to or outproducing their price tags. You don't have such flexibility if you keep a balanced-priced roster because you'd have to rearrange funds and eat up penalty points in order to re-work your roster than you would in taking up an insurance policy on a top stud.
- Take full advantage of "double dipping" opportunities: This opening week just happens to be a "double dip" week in the Yahoo game and surely, the EPL game will have its share of double dip weeks before the season's through with. A double dip week in fantasy Premier League is essentially the equivalent of a two-start week for pitchers in fantasy baseball. As such, you want to maximize your scoring potential for the week by loading up on players who aren't only productive in and of themselves but can make the most of the two matches they're slated to play. Straightforward, no? Again, knowing who's living up to their price tags is important in such practice and so, you shouldn't be participating in the double dip for double dipping's sake.
- There's no strategy written in stone to win this thing: What I've given you is just one strategy in how to carry on with your fantasy team, but I've seen teams win leagues on different tactics before. The important thing is in any strategy, is to realize value in all things, the foundation of winning this game.
Without further ado, here's the first week's picks.
Week 1 Fixtures
- Chelsea v Hull (Saturday, August 15)
- Everton v Arsenal
- Blackburn v Manchester City
- Bolton v Sunderland
- Portsmouth v Fulham
- Stoke v Burnley
- Wolverhampton v West Ham
- Aston Villa v Wigan
- Manchester United v Birmingham (Sunday, August 16)
- Tottenham v Liverpool
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- Wigan v Wolverhampton (Tuesday, August 18)
- Sunderland v Chelsea
- Liverpool v Stoke (Wednesday, August 19)
- Birmingham v Portsmouth
- Burnley v Manchester United
- Hull v Tottenham
Forwards

Must-haves:
- Wayne Rooney, Manchester United
- Fernando Torres, Liverpool
- Nicolas Anelka, Chelsea
- Didier Drogba, Chelsea
Start:
- Michael Owen, Manchester United
- Dimitar Berbatov, Manchester United
- Jermain Defoe, Tottenham
- Darren Bent, Sunderland
- Kenwyne Jones, Sunderland
- Sylvan Ebanks-Blake, Wolverhampton
- Hugo Rodallega, Wigan
Avoid:
- Robinho/Emmanuel Adebayor, Manchester City
- Robin van Persie, Arsenal
- Gabriel Agbonlahor/John Carew/Emile Heskey, Aston Villa
- Jo/Yakubu/Louis Saha, Everton
- James Beattie/Ricardo Fuller, Stoke

Four strikers I'll classify as "must-haves", players who you should build your squad around for the week. At the top of the heap, it's a toss-up between Fernando Torres and Wayne Rooney as the marquee forward to be spending top dollar. If I had to choose one of the two, I'd pick Rooney, who has quite the appetizing first couple of matches: back-to-back outings against new boys, Birmingham and Burnley. The Blues rearguard gets a serious test from the off against the Premier League champions and even if they'll opt to play for a point, United use the wide pitch of Old Trafford to their advantage. United are the first side to visit Turf Moor in the top flight, but Rooney and the Reds should still excel away at Burnley. As for Torres, Liverpool face a Spurs side who figure to be thin at the back this weekend, but will be desperate to put on a good home showing; it could be a feistier game than most would otherwise expect. Liverpool open at home to Stoke and don't be fooled, this will be an interesting test for the Merseysiders as they attempt to crack open a stubborn lower-table caliber rearguard. Both Nicolas Anelka and Didier Drogba can profit from a favorable opening couplet of Hull and Sunderland. While Drogba is on relative terms in pricing with Anelka in the EPL game, he's considerably cheaper in the Yahoo game and in showing spirited preseason form, Drogba could have a big week ahead of him.
Given price considerations, I'll give the edge to Michael Owen over Dimitar Berbatov even though one can expect either to come off the bench in one of the first two games. Jermain Defoe has been in the kind of rampant goalscoring form for England, as he displayed early last season. The matchup to circle is the midweek away date at Hull, but don't be too deterred by the home opener against Liverpool, as the Reds are a bit unsettled at the back, missing out on Alvaro Arbeloa to Real Madrid and Fabio Aurelio on the shelf. Defoe's former Spurs mate, Darren Bent has a knack for finding the net to great effect in the first two months of the season and the matchup at Bolton is favorable enough to give great consideration to starting him as well as link-up partner Kenwyne Jones. Keep in mind the mixed week in general for Sunderland, as they host Chelsea in their home opener this Tuesday.
This is an excellent week to give a shot to Wolves attackers, as Wanderers open up the new season against a fickle West Ham side and a Wigan squad that figure to be uneven at the back from the off. As such, Wolves' leading scorer, Sylvan Ebanks-Blake is a promising play for quite a small price. If you want to take a punt on an obscure jewel, then look no further than Wigan's Hugo Rodallega, who showed some promise when the fallout of Amr Zaki and the ineffectiveness of Mido, opened up a shot for Rodallega to shine. The opening go-round against Aston Villa sounds lukewarm at best, but there are still questions to be asked of the Villa rearguard sans the retired Martin Laursen. Wolves figure to be light at the back, which gives a good incentive to give Rodallega a go just for the possibility of a big payday against Mick McCarthy's lads.
Lastly, I'd look to maximize my team's scoring potential by weeding out forwards with just a single game to be played in a week where more than half of the league have midweek games. Manchester City and Arsenal have tricky away matchups to Blackburn and Everton, respectively. Robinho and company might not take a shine to Rovers' physical play to disrupt their attacking rhythm. Considering that City had woes of their own in finding the net away from Eastlands last term, playing the wait-and-see game with Robinho, Emmanuel Adebayor, is the best route to take. Robin van Persie salvaged a last-minute goal to help Arsenal draw Everton at Goodison Park last season, but it would take a gargantuan point output to justify spending 11-20% of your budget on the Dutchman putting on an epic performance in a single game. Apply the same line of thinking to the Stoke duo of James Beattie and Ricardo Fuller despite the intriguing matchup at Burnley.
Midfielders

Must-haves:
- Frank Lampard, Chelsea
- Steven Gerrard, Liverpool
Start:
- Antonio Valencia, Manchester United
- Florent Malouda, Chelsea
- Aaron Lennon, Tottenham
- Luka Modric, Tottenham
- Nenad Milijas, Wolverhampton
- Jordi Gomez, Wigan
- Charles N'Zogbia, Wigan
- Kieran Richardson, Sunderland
- Darren Fletcher, Manchester United
- Sebastian Larsson, Birmingham
- John Utaka, Portsmouth
- Niko Krancjar, Portsmouth
Avoid:
- Nani, Manchester United
- Stephen Ireland, Manchester City
- Ashley Young/James Milner, Aston Villa
- Matthew Taylor, Bolton
- Cesc Fabregas, Arsenal
- Yuri Zhirkov, Chelsea
- Luis Jimenez, West Ham
Straightforward stuff here. Your two super-stud midfielders, Frank Lampard and Steven Gerrard will likely occupy this space, week to week. Supposedly, Gerrard is a doubt for Spurs, which by the process of elimination, leaves Lampard as the safest bet to play. I would've said that Lamps has the better two-week opening stretch over Stevie G. anyway.

Here's where it gets interesting because this week's midfield picks calls for a steady diet of frugal midfielders with some reason and upside of making good in a big way this week. Antonio Valencia is probably the cream of the crop amongst the non-must have mids. One can expect fine service from Valencia down the wing and perhaps the odd goal and a bucket load of tackles, given his fine defense. On the other hand, Nani is the more explosive play of the two United wingers, though he remains a doubt to start for the opener nonetheless. He is quite cheap in the Yahoo game though and if you feel like taking an adventurous punt, go on right ahead at your risk. By default, Florent Malouda should start in Yuri Zhirkov's stead as the Russian is likely to sit out with injury and the matchups speak for themselves. The two Tottenham wingers, Aaron Lennon and Luka Modric can test the Liverpool fullbacks and have a mouthwatering away date at Hull.
From the nether reaches of the bargain bin are a couple of hidden gems and I've covered them at some length in the Premier League preview column: Wolves' Nenad Milijas and Wigan's Jordi Gomez. First off, Milijas, who has quite a hype machine behind him, seeing that he's a tall drink of water and possesses the attributes of being a successful attacking midfielder in the Premier League. Not only will he be in the hole behind the partnership of Sylvan Ebanks-Blake and Kevin Doyle, Milijas will likely be counted on in dead ball situations. In 97 career appearances for Red Star Belgrade, the Serbian midfielder struck 37 goals. Given the first two matches to West Ham and Wigan, Milijas has a legitimate chance of capitalizing on a good situation. The Latics believe they have a budding star of their own in Jordi Gomez and his record at Swansea shows he can be a handful to defend. Like Milijas, Gomez plays a very similar role and possesses similar characteristics to the former Red Star man. It's a relatively soft week for Gomez's Wigan as well and he could be a fine surprise this weekend and in the midweek fixture.
Alright, lads. There's taking a punt the right way and there's taking a punt in the "Pulling a Homer" way if it all goes right. First off, taking the punt the right way: playing the matchups on good information. With Valencia out of the picture at Wigan, Charles N'Zogbia, the once-unhappy Newcastle winger, has a permanent spot in the Latics' starting XI. Not quite as explosive in terms of upside as Gomez, but he has Premier League experience and had a couple of decent fantasy campaigns with the Magpies. Sunderland winger Kieran Richardson could reach his full stride under Steve Bruce and if you can put up with the possibility of disappointment in the second leg against Chelsea, Richardson is another good money bargain. Alright, here's taking a punt on a Hail Mary... Darren Fletcher is super cheap in the Yahoo game, but at the very beginning of last year, he managed to poach a couple of odd goals against a few suspect rearguards. Otherwise, Fletcher is a tackling magnet who can justify the 4-5 million invested in him with the rest of your fantasy team's funds invested in key spots. Sebastian Larsson of Birmingham had a useful year in his first stay in the Premier League, but this week, you're practically just paying for one good match against Portsmouth. Speaking of Pompey, they're also on a double-dip week and (shudder) if you really want to fall off the wagon, take Niko Krancjar on the soft schedule against Fulham and Birmingham. Feeling economical? Maybe John Utaka for less than five million.
As I said with the strikers, I'd lean towards not buying midfielders with just one fixture for the week. If you're in the EPL game, Matty Taylor is actually a decent play for the Sunderland match, but as I said with Robinho/Adebayor, I anticipate that City will be locked in a dogfight which makes it a no-go for Stephen Ireland and Cesc Fabregas is overpriced for the Everton match; you'll be relying on a set piece or so from Cesc as he still lacks cover to go forward.
Defenders

Must-haves:
- Jose Bosingwa, Chelsea
- Patrice Evra, Manchester United
- Glen Johnson, Liverpool
- Sebastian Bassong, Tottenham
Start:
- Abdoulaye Faye/Ryan Shawcross/Andy Wilkinson, Stoke
- Maynor Figueroa, Wigan
- John O'Shea, Manchester United
- Sylvain Distin, Portsmouth
- Thomas Vermaelen, Arsenal
- Rio Ferdinand, Manchester United
- John Terry/Ashley Cole, Chelsea
- Jamie Carragher, Liverpool
Avoid:
- Nemanja Vidic, Manchester United
- Jonny Evans, Manchester United
- Joleon Lescott, Everton
- Bacary Sagna/Gael Clichy, Arsenal
- Gary Cahill/Ricardo Gardner/Gretar Steinsson, Bolton
Aside from Sebastian Bassong, all the must-haves have something in common: they're fullbacks with attacking instinct, who are more than just a clean sheet waiting to happen. I'd roll with Jose Bosingwa, Patrice Evra, and Glen Johnson in that order. Bassong emerges in must-have territory in spite of him being a center back because he's likely to be rather cheap and he should be a shoo-in in Spurs' starting XI. Don't be put off by the Liverpool match especially if Gerrard's groin still remains too tight to play and Bassong can make up for it against an anemic Hull side.
I really fancy Stoke this week, even with the tough second leg at Anfield, but Burnley at the Britannia is too good to pass up on a couple of Potters generating a clean sheet for a very reasonable price. Remember, don't pay for clean sheets. Of the three of Abdoulaye Faye, Ryan Shawcross, and Andy Wilkinson, Wilkinson is the cheapest of the three and if you have money tied up elsewhere, here's your guy. If you have a little more flexibility, go with the more disciplined Faye and if you like the upside of a possible goal or assist from the back for a few more pounds, splurging on Shawcross is OK. John O'Shea and Sylvain Distin have a soft two games from which to defend and could pick up meaningful points here. Maynor Figueroa is always a mainstay in my back three or four because of his cheap price and goals-to-assists contributions, in spite of a potentially troublesome week against Aston Villa and Wolves. I'm not too keen on high-priced center backs, especially Rio Ferdinand who is experiencing some back pain again, but if you want to go that way, Rio, John Terry, and Jamie Carragher are the go-to guys here. The only one-start lad you see from this lot is Arsenal center half Thomas Vermaelen, set to make his Premier League debut at Everton, but for the life of me, I can't see him outperforming his relatively low price for some reason; I still think the Gunners will have communication problems at the back.
Easy call to stay away from the injured Nemanja Vidic and Jonny Evans is a doubt at the back as well, but he was too pricey for my liking anyway.
Goalkeepers

Must-haves:
- Ben Foster/Tomasz Kuszczak, Manchester United
- Petr Cech, Chelsea
Start:
- Jose Reina, Liverpool
- Thomas Sorensen, Stoke
Avoid:
- Jussi Jaaskelainen, Bolton
- Manuel Almunia, Arsenal
- Tim Howard, Everton
- Joe Hart, Birmingham
- Robert Green, West Ham
- Boaz Myhill, Hull
- Brian Jensen, Burnley
Assuming Ben Foster shakes off his mystery knock, he's a no-brainer to start this week and long term with Edwin van der Sar out for the first couple of months or so. As long as the hopeful England #1 doesn't muck it up with some dodgy decisions, the job is his up until VDS' return. Keep an eye out for Tomasz Kuszczak however, who can be quite suspect in his own right. Petr Cech should have an easy time of things against Hull and stands more than a boxer's chance of a clean sheet at Sunderland.
On the very edge of the must-haves is Liverpool goalkeeper Jose Reina, of whom I'm reluctant on advising wholeheartedly as a must-have because of the unpredictability of Spurs on opening day and the chance of some jitters at the back. The Stoke matchup makes the start of Reina worth it, however. Speaking of the Potters, you have to love Thomas Sorensen's matchup against Burnley right away, even if the away outing to Liverpool clouds his output for the week.
I'd have no problem trotting out a couple of the single-game keepers with some solid matchups: Shay Given of Manchester City at Blackburn and Aston Villa's Brad Friedel against Wigan. The remaining matchups for single-game keepers have a high risk of missing out on a clean sheet and even the likes of Jussi Jaaskelainen and Robert Green would be hard-pressed to deny Sunderland and Wolverhampton in their respective home openers. Two-start goalkeepers with some creaky matchups such as Brum's Joe Hart, Hull's Boaz Myhill, and Burnley's Brian Jensen, present more downside for negative points and really shouldn't be given a second thought.
Well, there's the first Diving in the Box of the year in the books. Check back Monday for the first Premiership recap column. No recap column for the midweek games, but tune in next Friday for the second go-round of Diving in the Box. Until then, keep your clothes on...
-Ray



i got my butt kicked ..
If I started Sorensen over Ben Foster (three points difference), I'd be tied for first (played Ashley's Failures, surely a Toon fan).
i guess "Butt Kicked" is an over exaggeration ( i lost by 6 points), but i had a few guys not play full time, guys I figured where going to play full time (Kalou and Crouch), and that really hurt me.
Only half the teams play this week, so it should be interesting ...
Everyone in my starting XI (except Hangeland) will play tomorrow and Wednesday. That's part of the reason why avoided players from Arsenal, City, Fulham, etc. Otherwise, I'd be paying some sort of penalty to switch out a transfer or more.
nice little bounce back for the smoggies .. looks like i needed every point too.