You'll have to excuse the title, it's the 14 year old in me coming out, probably perpetuated by the fact that I spend the vast majority of my workday around, you guessed it, 14 year olds. But I digress. After finishing the week on a very somber note (see full breakdown below), I'm back, head high, pride in tact, checking the hubris at the door, trying to put together the first Spot * On whole week since like April. So, who we gon' kick it off with?
Mike Pelfrey (R), NYM (49% Owned) vs Cole Hamels (L), PHI
By the skin of his teeth! Just under our 50% ceiling, Big Pelf meets Ol' Cold in the 2nd of 3 weekday matchups between the Mets and the Phils, and after Johan makes short order of Philly tonight, I expect Iron Mike to have success tomorrow as well. Guy was nothing short of excellent in seven consecutive starts before his meltdown last week against the Pirates, but he's a tough kid and he'll saddle back up and strike out a few more than usual against some undisciplined Phillies tomorrow. The fact that he's just a +115 underdog against Hamels speaks volumes about Vegas' confidence in him, and a Total Run Line of 8 (-115 juice on Over) is also favorable. The routine fly balls that fly out of Citizens Bank for Ryan Howard & Co. won't leave the infield at Citi Field. Expect a Quality Start and nice ratios, even if he's unable to earn the Win.
Doug Davis (L), ARI (33% Owned) vs Barry Zito (L), SF
Davis is continuing to go unnoticed in leagues despite posting Quality Starts five of his last six times on the bump, and has a great matchup tomorrow against Los Gigantes, who hold the league's second to worst OPS (.681) and Runs Scored (217) on the season. If that's not enough, the Giants have plates just 46 Runs on the Road all season, to the tune of a .652 OPS, both of which again strolling in at 29th Ranked in all of Major League Baseball. Davis is rightfully a -135 favorite against Zito, who has pitched pretty well, and there's -125 juice on Over 9 Total Runs, but I don't anticipate those being scored off of Davis.
Instead of going with a crazy number of picks, I'll just state those who just barely missed, including Jeremy Guthrie, after he laid an egg for me last week, as well as Jeff Niemann, who has looked sharp lately, and Dallas Braden, who I really think has a great chance at a strong outing against the Twinkies. That said, let's take a look at how I did last week, and try not to wince too hard...
| Week 9 | |||||||||
| DATE | SPOT * ON STARTER | OPP | IP | ER | H | BB | K | W/L | QS |
| 6/2 | David Hernández | SEA | 6.1 | 5 | 10 | 1 | 2 | L | N |
| 6/3 | J.A. Happ | at SD | 7.0 | 0 | 4 | 2 | 4 | W | Y |
| 6/4 | Jordan Zimmermann | SF | 6.0 | 2 | 3 | 0 | 7 | L | Y |
| 6/4 | Ross Detwiler | SF | 5.2 | 4 | 10 | 1 | 5 | L | N |
| 6/4 | Brian Tallet | LAA | 6.0 | 5 | 6 | 3 | 6 | ND | N |
| 6/5 | Jeremy Guthrie | at OAK | 0.2 | 6 | 7 | 0 | 0 | L | N |
| 6/5 | Dallas Braden | BAL | 7.0 | 1 | 5 | 0 | 7 | W | Y |
| 6/7 | Josh Geer | ARI | 5.0 | 4 | 5 | 3 | 2 | ND | N |
| 6/7 | Joel Pineiro | COL | 5.0 | 3 | 10 | 1 | 3 | L | N |
| TOTAL | - | - | 48.2 | 30 | 60 | 11 | 36 | 2 - 5 | |
| ERA : | 5.54 | ||||||||
| WHIP : | 1.46 | ||||||||
| K/9 : | 6.64 | ||||||||
| K/BB : | 3.27 | ||||||||
| W/L : | 2 - 5 | ||||||||
| QS% : | 33.3% | ||||||||
Until next time...
Pavano-no vs KC (27%) and Mechemaster 3000 @ Cleveland (43%)
I like Pavano best in this matchup, but I would be happy spot-starting both guys.
Also love some Austin Niners: Bushy Beard vs Colorado and Diamond Dallas Braden vs Minnesota.
Deep leaguers: Jeff Niemann is worth the gamble; let's see if he keeps it up.
My Fab Five:
1. Carl P.
2. Dallas B.
3. Gil M.
4. David B.
5. Jeff N.
...
974. Bats Pelfrey
Pavano was a stud tonight, eh? Friggin' Mets bullpen allowing inherited Runs galore to score on Big Pelf!
..killed. Hopefully no one that read that was in a league where Pavano was available. I personally got a gem from Meche last night in one league, and Braden made for an excellent fifth SP choice against you this week in HRBL.