Ah, the final Sunday, the finishing line of a 38-game marathon, and in the North East and in Hull, fingernails will be bitten off as two of either Newcastle, Sunderland, Middlesbrough, or Hull could face the drop to the kiddies' table, sponsored by Coca-Cola. Luckily for you and me, finishing last in the cellar of our fantasy leagues doesn't entail relegation or a handsome sum of money being tossed out of our banking accounts, but if you're hardcore, read the rest of this and join the motley crew of Geordies, Smoggies, Mackems, and erm, Kingston-upon-Hull folks sweating out their Sundays on their football teams' fortunes (or the lack thereof?). Me? Well, I'm going to sit back on the couch and drink a Coke, and believe me, anyone of you Geordies, Smoggies, Mackems, and erm, Kingston-upon-Hull folks are welcome to sit on my couch and have a Coke as well. It'll cost you about $40 million to do that, and I don't mean the round trip to L.A., no?
Forwards
Start (in following order):
- Nicolas Anelka, Chelsea (@SUN)
- Fernando Torres, Liverpool (TOT)
- Nicklas Bendtner, Arsenal (STO)
- John Carew, Aston Villa (NEW)
- Gabriel Agbonlahor, Aston Villa (NEW)
- Clint Dempsey, Fulham (EVE)
- Benni McCarthy, Blackburn (WBA)
- Obafemi Martins, Newcastle (@AST)
Wild Cards:
- Robbie Keane, Tottenham (@LIV)
- Jermain Defoe, Tottenham (@LIV)
- Hugo Rodallega, Wigan (POR)
- James Beattie, Stoke (@ARS)
- Ricardo Fuller, Stoke (@ARS)
- Louis Saha, Everton (@FUL)
- Danny Welbeck, Manchester United (@HULL)
- Kiko Macheda, Manchester United (@HULL)
- Kenwyne Jones, Sunderland (CHE)
- Djibril Cisse, Sunderland (CHE)
First thing is first: it's tricky to say who's clearly a "must-have" on the final day of the season when a number of teams don't necessarily have a ton to play for, unless they want to finish on a high note. Obviously, Sunday is for the relegation battlers but also consider those teams in the hunt for Europa League qualification (i.e. Tottenham) have something to play for and I reckon, Aston Villa and Everton want the honor of finishing fifth. I don't reckon your fantasy team's title hopes hang in the balance at this point of the season unless it's a bit tight at the top (let's say, a 20-30 point gap or less) and if that's the case, selecting a combination of studs, players with the best matchups, and those who have extra motivation to go balls-out is a head-scratching prospect.
Anyway, of your stud players, I think you have to go with either - or better yet a combination of these two forwards - Nicolas Anelka or Fernando Torres. Pictured on the right, sporting a Tour de France tracksuit of a Chelsea home kit, Anelka has a chance to finish as the Premier League's top scorer with Cristiano Ronaldo likely to not feature for United this Sunday; both Ronnie and Anelka are tied with 18 goals for the league lead (yes, quite a low-scoring campaign, isn't it?). For the curtain call at Anfield, Torres has a juicy matchup against a Tottenham side that are strapped for their first-choice defenders. If I had to pick one, Torres would be the guy (for the slightly cheaper price in the Yahoo game compared to Anelka) but it's preferable to buy both if you could.
If you're looking for cheap strikers, you might want to take a slight gamble on Nicklas Bendtner starting up front for the Gooners against Stoke although this could be Emmanuel Adebayor's moment in the sun if this proves to be the last game he plays at the Emirates and for Arsenal. If you're feeling skittish about Bendtner, I like the Villa duo of John Carew and Gabriel Agbonlahor against a leaky Newcastle backline, but the edge goes to the in-form Carew who has bagged six goals in his last ten games. His opposite number, Obafemi Martins of Newcastle is the most worthy fantasy forward starter amongst Magpies strikers, and in a game that means absolutely the world to Geordie Nation to stay up, Martins will be the key man to help pounce on a Villa rearguard who have only recorded one clean sheet (against Hull) since a 2-0 win of Blackburn on February 7. Elsewhere, on the extreme bargain end of things, Benni McCarthy is supremely cheap and is a promising play against a stubborn West Brom side that don't know the meaning of defense. If you have Clint Dempsey for a relatively cheap price, the Yank is worth a go for a Fulham side that fare much better at home on a smaller pitch, offensively and defensively speaking.
Is there a greater wild card this final Sunday than Tottenham's Robbie Keane? The Irish international, struggling to fit in with Liverpool especially considering that his role had been usurped by Steven Gerrard playing up in front, was sent back by Rafa Benitez to White Hart Lane. A prodigal son of sorts, there's a revenge factor for the Spurs' hitman to sink the best-ever second-place team that ever played in English top-flight football. Jermain Defoe is another suitable option if you're looking to anchor your strikeforce with a Spur.
There are a handful of cheap strikers who provide enticing potential for a big day, but are tempered some by a lack of track record in the top flight. With Wayne Rooney, Dimitar Berbatov, and Carlos Tevez likely to sit out, a couple of kids in Federico Macheda and Danny Welbeck are intriguing plays for the buck against a Hull rearguard who have been carved open, sometimes by self-inflicted mistakes. However, the smarter money might lie in Wigan's Hugo Rodallega with a ripe matchup against Portsmouth. The Stoke duo of James Beattie and Ricardo Fuller are worth a shout against a shaky Arsenal backline, missing Manuel Almunia and possibly Lukasz Fabianski between the pipes. Conversely, I'm skeptical of the Sunderland twosome of Djibril Cisse and Kenwyne Jones as their partnership has gotten on, which could mean Cisse's departure this Summer, but if you're desperate for forward production from naturally, a desperate team scrapping for Premier League survival, either Cisse or Jones could be up your alley.
Midfielders
Start (in following order):
- Steven Gerrard, Liverpool (TOT)
- Frank Lampard, Chelsea (@SUN)
- Stephen Ireland, Manchester City (BOL)
- Matthew Taylor, Bolton (@MANC)
- Aaron Lennon, Tottenham (@LIV)
- Luka Modric, Tottenham (@LIV)
- Antonio Valencia, Wigan (POR)
- Danny Murphy, Fulham (EVE)
- Marouane Fellaini, Everton (@FUL)
- Steven Pienaar, Everton (@FUL)
Wild Cards:
- Nani, Manchester United (@HULL)
- Morten Gamst Pedersen, Blackburn (WBA)
- Gareth Barry, Aston Villa (NEW)
- Chris Brunt, West Brom (@BLA)
- Darren Fletcher, Manchester United (@HULL)
On the point of Torres, Steven Gerrard is perhaps the strongest option amongst all midfielders against a Spurs rearguard a touch under full strength and he has produced well in the most favorable of matchups. Playing Stevie G. and Frank Lampard is an ideal situation to sort out the midfield and I also like City's Stephen Ireland to close out the season in fashion against Bolton. Ireland's opposite number, Matthew Taylor, is somewhat risky seeing how City tend to shore things up better at the back at home, but his talismanic quality to the Trotters' attack makes him an essential play and besides, he's rather cheap for the top production he's provided for a relatively lackluster side. Of those mids who have something to play for, I like the Spurs duo of Aaron Lennon and Luka Modric best despite the tough matchup on paper against Liverpool, as well as the form players in Fulham's Danny Murphy as well as Everton's Steven Pienaar and Marouane Fellaini.
Of the wild cards, Nani for United has some value although his form has been sketchy in the times he has featured, but Darren Fletcher is a certainty to play for United with the Champions League final sadly and unjustly out of his grasp and is priced in the low-5's in the Yahoo game. The only thing is unless Fletch rediscovers that knack for the goal in the earliest part of the season, he's merely a guy to save up money on and allocate to other spots. Elsewhere, if you've been hanging on to West Brom's Chris Brunt for some discount, it's only fitting to let the Baggie play in the side's farewell to the Premier League against Blackburn.
Defenders
Start (in following order):
- John Paintsil, Fulham (EVE)
- Jose Bosingwa, Chelsea (@SUN)
- Fabio, Manchester United (@HULL)
- Rafael, Manchester United (@HULL)
- Maynor Figueroa, Wigan (POR)
- Joleon Lescott, Everton (@FUL)
- Alan Hutton, Tottenham (@LIV)
- Gael Givet, Blackburn (WBA)
Spending cheaply on defenders is the way to go to play the matchups when on average, even the Big Four defenders don't yield a ton of points relative to other positions for the clean sheets. There are a couple of interesting options to complement the two best bargain defenders in fantasy this year (John Paintsil and Jose Bosingwa) and in fact a few of them are twins: Fabio and Rafael of Manchester United. I don't believe United nab a clean sheet even if Hull seem to lack punch for the net, but either one is a cheap investment and a sure bet to play, even over John O'Shea. Another cheap play just for the sake of freeing up money is Blackburn's Gael Givet, who might surprise with a clean sheet although WBA have enough quality to bag one or two goals against the suspect Rovers backline.
Goalkeepers
Start (in following order):
- Mark Schwarzer, Fulham (EVE)
- Tomasz Kuszczak, Manchester United (@HULL)
- Robert Green, West Ham (MID)
- Petr Cech, Chelsea (@SUN)
- Paul Robinson, Blackburn (WBA)
- Boaz Myhill, Hull (MANU)
Just like with the recommended defenders in store for this final weekend, there's a few bargain keepers to note for this final punt. The obvious one is United's Tomasz Kuszczak with Edwin van der Sar an excellent bet to sit Sunday for the big Wednesday night and the second-choice keeper Ben Foster a casualty to long-term injury again. Again, I don't expect United to nab that clean sheet against a Hull side grinding for the result, but you could do no worse than the sometimes-nervy Koozy. If you need another cheap play, Blackburn's Paul Robinson could be up your alley, although I reckon WBA will play a well-spirited attacking game. Koozy's opposite number, Boaz Myhill is super, super cheap and should free up a more than fair share of funds for the last go-round.
If you're looking for a viable mid-priced keeper with a fine shot of a clean sheet, look no further than West Ham's Robert Green against a Middlesbrough side that will be without Stewart Downing because of an injury last week and amongst studs, Mark Schwarzer of Fulham tends to benefit well on the tighter Cottage pitch. If you're looking to buy a high-end keeper, I reckon Petr Cech will yield the highest return just knowing the matchup away to Sunderland.
Well, well, well... that wraps things up for the week and for the year with respect to this term's Diving in the Box. Aside from the jinxes of goalfests, I'd say it was a decent season on my part for fantasy picks and as usual, doing this week to week is a hit-or-miss business. Could've been more scoring this year, given that Anelka could wind up as the only 20-goal scorer for the year, although I reckon in a non-Euro/non-World Cup campaign in 2009/10, you can expect that to spike up with fresher legs out there. So, here's the schedule from here on out: last recap on Monday with some spirited relegation commentary, an end-of-season Premier League ranking sheet some time next week (I know I've been a deadbeat here the last few months, but I'll come up with something), and the rest of the offseason will be devoted to transfer talk and the occasional preseason fantasy column. I think we'll have two, two and a half months of offseason, preseason, what-have-you to tread through before the new season arrives and you can beat I'll keep blogging whenever I can this Summer once news breaks out. Shoot, while I'm at it, I should open a sign-up sheet for next season's Rotodatabase Premier League, although I'm really keen on opening it up to a Euroleague on Ole Ole, a game that combines the five big European leagues (England, Spain, Italy, France, Germany) for a bit of variety and to open the game to more interested folks. Because of the H2H World Series WR runs in these parts, we have a fine German contingent and I'd think they would be thrilled with a fantasy league that factors in the Bundesliga. So, anyway, do please stop by this Summer while you're on holiday in say, Ibiza or Tahiti, to talk a little fantasy football. Until then, enjoy the league's final day, the Summer, and please keep your clothes on...
-Ray
Well, Newcastle once again came out with a dismal performance, with few players showing any sort of desire to actually keep the team in the top flight. And the result is that they've got exactly what they deserve - relegation.
There will be a lot of rubbish (indeed there already has been) written or said about why Newcastle have gone down - very little of it by people who actually know the club and the situation there. There have already been some knee-jerk reactions blaming the fans for having "too high expectations" or having a Rookie manager in Alan Shearer. Let me address these two points first.
a) The "Newcastle fans have too high expectations" is a myth repeated and perpetuated by the media and fans of other clubs repeating it ad nauseum on messageboards. The reality is that no Newcastle fan expects or demands the team to be near the top of the league, challenging for trophies. There was a time under Kevin Keegan (the first time) and Sir Bobby Robson, briefly, where Newcastle were a top 4 team qualifying for the Champions League - those days are long gone, and every true Newcastle fan knows & acknowledges it. We have not demanded or expected trophies or near-top-of-the-table finishes for a long time now. But however much we repeat that fact - no one seems to hear us! All we expect is a team that will show passion and commitment for the cause, ideally playing attractive football. We haven't won anything for 40 years, for goodness sake - how can we possibly be accused of expecting Newcastle to win trophies every year!!!
b) Alan Shearer is not the reason for the relegation. We were heading for the drop before he arrived, and despite his best efforts, the individuals he had to work with proved time and again that they were not up to the task. I for one hope he stays on next season and builds his own team, but whether he does or not, he is not to blame for the drop.
So who is to blame? There are a number of factors that this fan can see - someone who has supported them for 27 years, and seen us relegated more than once before today.
1) The rot began when Sir Bobby was sacked. I remember well when it happened, and he had made some questionable decisions in the summer before, but should he have been sacked? There were arguments on both sides, and I can see why FFS (Fat Freddy Shepherd, the then chairman) made the decision - because he was demanding Champions League football, and he thought SBR could no longer deliver it. I think he was wrong, but that's where the rot began.
2) It then continued with a succession of poor managerial appointments - people who didn't understand the club or the desire for attractive football. Some people may remember that, after Newcastle's promotion under Kevin Keegan, Sky TV began referring to us as "The Entertainers" - because of the style of football we played - and it was good then. Many people round the country took Newcastle as their "2nd team". But the appointments of managers like Graeme Souness resulted in our style changing and becoming a lot duller - and more ineffective. FFS lost patience repeatedly because of the downward spiral we had then embarked upon, and he went for the "quick fix" every time, sacking the manager & appointing more unsuitable ones. So the cycle repeated itself.
3) Also around this time, the club began to get into deeper and deeper debt in an attempt to attract the best players with huge wages. Bad idea if you haven't got a Russian oligarch to write the cheques.
4) The players signed were, on the whole, horrible! Anyone remember Marcelino? Fumaca? Maric? I thought not...
5) If they weren't terrible players, they were often richer clubs' cast-offs. Some are still around today - Butt, Duff, Geremi - the list is endless.
6) The appointment of Sam Allardyce was - at the time - the worst ever, as he tried to turn the club into Bolton 2 - something which was never going to work. Although a number of people have claimed that we would be better off if we had kept him (look at Blackburn, they say) - the reality is that many of the players he signed for the club - Joey Barton being the prime example - are the reason we were relegated.
7) Mike Ashley's reign has been little short of disastrous! The one good thing he has done is clear some - not all - of the club's debts. But every other decision has been madness - the appointment of Dennis Wise as "Director of Football", bringing Keegan back without giving him control of transfers, putting the club up for sale when it needed stability, appointing Joe Kinnear - a man out of football for years - and then spending too long with caretakers looking after the team.
8) And finally, there have been far too many players who have sleepwalked their way through this season, putting little effort in and playing in an attitude of disinterest. Too many of them are on huge wages and don't care about relegation, because they'll find some other sucker to give them the money they want. Personally, there are only a few of this shower that I would like to see stick around next season - players like Harper, Taylor, Beye, Butt & Carroll spring immediately to mind. But most of the rest of them I will be glad to see the back of - there has been pitifully little effort all the way through, and today's "performance" was absolutely typical.
So where do Newcastle go from here? Firstly, they need to persuade Shearer to stay on; if he can't be persuaded, they need to get a manager who knows the Championship and what it takes to get promotion. I wonder, if Shearer doesn't stay, if Steve Bruce could be persuaded to take up the gauntlet - a man who is from the North-east and understands the passionate nature of the city, a man who has worked wonders at "unfashionable" clubs, and a man who has gained promotion to the Premiership. I think if Newcastle approached him, he might jump at the challenge.
The next priority is to clear out the dead wood who have such a high presence at the club. Then to bring in players who actually want to wear the black and white stripes and will have a sense of pride in doing so. In the long-term, relegation might be good for the club, if it gets them to finally put together a 5-year plan, instead of winging it year-on-year, creating instability every few months. This club needs some stability.
So there we have it. As I say, there will be lots of comment from "experts" who know nothing about the club as to where they think it has gone wrong. This is the opinion of a fan who lives and breathes Newcastle, has followed them for years, and who knows what he is talking about! Take it for what it's worth, but if nothing else, please ignore the idiots who say that the fans have been rewarded for their "too high expectations"! Believe me - if you were a Newcastle fan, you'd know how laughable that comment is!
I'll have plenty to say in my blog tomorrow, but I'll talk a bit about Shearer. The thing is, I doubt many would be placing the burden of Newcastle's fate on Shearer; he came on in well beyond the ship hit the iceberg and yes, it was that precarious. As you pointed out, Newcastle have been greatly mismanaged in just about every facet and I'll agree that when Sir Bobby Robson sacked, that was a small step to the beginning of the end.
Having said that, I don't think Shearer's the guy to manage next season for you guys. Chris, remember, how I compared Magic Johnson when he took over the Lakers' head coaching position at nearly the same circumstances as Shearer? Well, not quite, but the Lakers not making the playoffs is thought of in LA like how any supporters of a "big club" feel when their team is relegated, but anyway, I digress. My point is, you look at top players - and especially in the case of players known for great individual greatness (Keane, Maradona, Shearer) - and long term and sometimes very quickly, they don't make great long-term managers. Very few do make the egress.
In Shearer's case, it's not just changing the locker room culture but doing so in a way where they can achieve something sizable (in this case, we'll say promotion or close to it). Roy Keane did that in one year with Sunderland but he got carried away in spending so as to keep Sunderland not just afloat but for mid-table aspirations. Such ambition is great, but when you're a team in that particular situation, realism has to set in and there has to be an astute plan B. I think in Keano and say, Frank Rijkaard's situation, once they hit a minor snarl, it ebbed into something worse, and with both gaffers, I think they didn't capitulate per se in those situations because they wanted as best as possible to not tackle them head-on.
Again, if Shearer's on-board next season, it's inevitable there will be trimming of the fat. Michael Owen is a certainty to go and so is Mark Viduka and unfortunately, it looks like they'll have to sell Martins. Like you said, the mission is to bring in players who are motivated to play for Newcastle for the shirt's sake. My concern with Shearer like with Keano, is he's used to great individual success and the same goes for their resumes on championship caliber sides. I think it's inevitable that once Shearer changes the culture, so would the expectations be higher and limits will be pushed to the max, it's almost intrinsic. I'd think by now Keano has met the realization it's not as simple as that and that will be his biggest test at Ipswich next term or in the seasons to come in fact. Newcastle will need some restructuring behind the scenes, which will somewhat tie one hand behind Shearer's back. There's also the realistic prospect that there will be a Leeds effect on Newcastle, not so much that they will go the way of Leeds, but teams in the Coke league will be extra pumped to be playing a big fish in the small pond, so to speak.
You brought up Stevie Bruce and I think he's best suited long-term than Shearer is and by long-term, I say beyond next season. He has been through the relegation yo-yo before, he has a track record of working with limited resources, and he has a keen eye for undervalued talent (i.e. Palacios, Valencia). I think most of all, Bruce's attitude was that of a guy who wasn't a well-reputed prospect at first, but had the blue-collar ethic of making the most of what he had. That attitude and approach works well with a side of Birmingham and Wigan's stature and that should be preferred in Newcastle over Shearer, I'll say.
Interesting call on Bruce. He certainly has the experience and hard-arsed qualities Newcastle will need. Take it from a Norwich fan, the Championship is no easy league to get out of (or perhaps that should be...it is a very easy league to get out of - the wrong way!).
Bruce, who made his name at Norwich, should have been our manager a few years back. I think our club might have been quite different now if he had been appointed. His Milk Cup semi-final winning goal against Ipshit in 1985 will always be remembered in these parts.
I fear for Newcastle if they don't make the right appointment and decisions quickly. There is going to be a mass exodus of players (some good, some bad) and they will need to buy the right players for the Championship. But that much change means hitting the ground running next season will be difficult. I think both Boro and WBA are in a much better place to challenge next season than Newcastle right now.
There are some interesting parallels between Newcastle and Norwich, reading through Chris's comments - not least the succession of poor managerial appointments by badly out of their depth owners. We've also both turned to club legends late in the season without success. We've stood by Bryan Gunn, and I think, Newcastle will go with Shearer next season. I hope both are more successful in their second seasons!
PS Anyone see Ferguson's face when the Newcastle result was announced at Hull....he almost looked as happy as Phil Brown!!
I've seen the MOTD clip of the Hull/United match (we got Villa/Newcastle here) and all I had seen was a split-second of Fergie's smile as he walked away. I noticed it and it's quite funny to see.
He's probably happy that he won't have to face the Toon in the league next year - ironically, in what was a terrible season for Newcastle, our best two performances were probably the games against Manchester United!