Diving in the Box: Fantasy Premiership Week 37

Almost at the summit, folks. After this weekend's matches, we've only the final weekend to look forward to and the title looks all but secured at Old Trafford on Saturday as Manchester United look for the threepeat and league title #18 to go on equal footing with Liverpool's record with at least a point against Arsenal. Elsewhere, the relegation race is starting to shape up somewhat and Europa League qualification is still up for grabs. It's just about graduation time, kiddies, and take a couple of long punts to salvage anything in your fantasy seasons this year.

First thing's first: apologies for not posting the weekly recap last Monday. Yeah, you would've expected me to be gloating over United winning the Manchester Derby in cruise control, but as such, I got sidetracked with a busier than usual week and didn't get a chance to jot anything down. We're also reaching the business end of the football calendar, which makes seeing the finish line all the more surreal. Less than 24 hours from now and before 7am, you'd probably find me celebrating United's 18th league title with a few pints of Guinness in whatever form in my bloodstream being the evidence of that. This has been a particularly draining season on me more than any other year I can recall for the extra United games to view, the rollercoaster effects of such an epic season, and of course, blogging about it all in either giving fantasy advice, writing recaps, or putting together rankings has taken a bit of a toll. All of it has been a ton of fun, however, and I'm looking forward to recharging my batteries until August and a brand new Premier League campaign rolls around. So, if you've read this blog rather frequently, thanks for checking in as often as you have and I'll blog every now and then this Summer with transfer news before restarting this Diving in the Box madness soon after.

Other than the anxious wait to celebrate at the least a point against Arsenal on Saturday, I don't have much else to say in the way of non-fantasy football thoughts. I've shrugged off all the needless Cristiano Ronaldo hissyfit hubbub against City, but the whole deal with Carlos Tevez has stuck in the back of my mind. For the record, I'm a Tevez apologist, in the sense that I love his all-action work ethic on the pitch, and I reckon this is why most United fans think so highly of him. As an objective supporter of the team (or at least I'd like to think I'm objective), I believe United should part ways with Carlitos for the 30-million-plus pound price hanging over his head. Using a basketball analogy, Tevez is a quality player and when I say that, I'm not talking about Kobe Bryant-like quality; I see him as a quality role player like a Robert Horry, you know, that guy who lies low in the weeds (which is an ironic comparison to the energetic Tevez) but has the knack for the clutch game-decider. Think of Tevez's goals last season and the timing of those goals and you'll see why he reminds me of a particular laidback Big Shot Rob. Look at the last two victories over Man City and Wigan where he supplied the usual workrate and energy expected of him, being on the right end of two crucial goals. Ultimately, I believe Carlitos fits in the United system because he gives a different dimension complementary to Ronaldo, Rooney, and Berbatov, but again, he's no more than a quality role player, just not a world-class quality player most would deem him to be. Much is made of how Tevez and Rooney are similar strikers, in that they're not pure out-and-out forwards and have a knack for actively pursuing the ball, but where they differ is Rooney has the pace and ability to create space and find nooks and crannies in the opposition from which to exploit. Tevez lacks the pace and a solid first touch to shake off defenders, which makes it a frustrating prospect when if he was quicker and more decisive on the ball, he'd be on the receiving end of pouncing on a fine opportunity. On the flip side, as maddening as Dimitar Berbatov is, as the direct antithesis of Tevez, he offers a few things which makes him a better first-team selection than Tevez: 1) ball retention and 2) better effectiveness partnering with Rooney which allows Rooney to play deeper and pursue the ball. That said, I'd say Carlitos can still be an important piece to the United cause especially with the times Fergie has had to push his hand in playing the four-headed monster of Tevez, Berbs, Rooney, and Ronaldo, but not for the fee asked for by Kia Joorabchian. Realistically, I would be rather sad if Tevez leaves Old Trafford for Liverpool or Manchester City given his desire to play in England and the need to feature as a first-choice option for a top club.

Oh, to be a Gooner these days. Arsenal were not just outclassed over both legs of the Champions League semifinal against United, but they were also soundly beaten at home by a Chelsea side scorned from a controversial European exit. I think the match reflects Arsenal's biggest weaknesses and what Arsene Wenger should do for his side to become a better-rounded threat for silverware next year. As I said earlier this season, you expect Arsenal to get plenty of possession but sometimes, it seems like they create chances for fun. Had it been for some more efficient finishing, Arsenal were the better side in that first half against Chelsea. The biggest problem is the fact Arsenal lack that steel in the center of the park which keeps their rearguard from being exposed. It's difficult to replace a Patrick Vieira type like it is for United to perfectly replace Roy Keane, but I reckon a combative holding mid like Mathieu Flamini (who transferred to Milan last offseason) or Wilson Palacios would do wonders for Arsenal's chances. That said, I don't expect Wenger's boys to serve the league title to United on a silver platter, but it's not too hard to believe Wenger has overestimated his side's quality and mentality, which is why they're likely to do no better than a draw at Old Trafford and secondly, why Wenger would have to buck the penny-pinching ways (way easier said than done given Arsenal's situation, let alone our current recession) to improve the Gunners into a better equipped side.

Lastly, as close as it may seem at the bottom, I reckon both West Brom and now, Middlesbrough have sealed their fates to the Championship next season. I caught most of the Boro game at Newcastle and it's disappointing that their nature of having a stuck mojo worked against them once again while Newcastle fully deserved the three points in what was a spirited game for the Geordie Nation. It seems like Chris' seemingly undying belief that Newcastle will survive the drop (although I'm not sure about you other Geordies out there about the drops and spikes of those tickers of yours) is going to pan out. Hull have been winless for ages and it looks like their Cinderella carriage has really busted since the half-term mark. The fickle nature of these relegation races is surely fascinating stuff and perhaps a few surprises to be had, no? Things will look a little clearer after this weekend...

Forwards

Must-haves:

• Wayne Rooney, Manchester United (ARS)
• Fernando Torres, Liverpool (WBA)

Recommended:

• Dirk Kuyt, Liverpool (WBA)
• Nicolas Anelka, Chelsea (BLA)
• Didier Drogba, Chelsea (BLA)
• Kevin Davies, Bolton (HULL)
• Peter Crouch, Portsmouth (SUN)
• Jo, Everton (WHU)
• John Carew, Aston Villa (@MID)
• Robbie Keane, Tottenham (MANC)
• James Beattie, Stoke (WIG)
• Clint Dempsey, Fulham (NEW)

Wild Cards:

• Hugo Rodallega, Wigan (@STO)
• Obafemi Martins, Newcastle (FUL)
• Kenwyne Jones, Sunderland (@POR)
• Djibril Cisse, Sunderland (@POR)

Just like in any fantasy sport at the business end of the season, your top studs don't necessarily make for the best plays at this stage, particularly when those players and their respective teams have their places set in stone. The beauty with football not being determined by a playoff for the most part is the idea that there will be favorable matchups that your top stars are eager to lock down. Of the elite must-have strikers, I'm going with Wayne Rooney with a fantastic chance for United to clinch the league and celebrate on the Old Trafford pitch and Fernando Torres, whose Liverpool side should be looking into finishing the year out on a high note, even a day removed from a likely United coronation. Torres and Dirk Kuyt also have fantastic matchups against the perpetually suspect West Brom rearguard. Nicolas Anelka and the still-to-be-suspended Didier Drogba are also favorable starters against Rovers and even if Guus Hiddink would be keen on giving a cushion of rest for his top players in prelude to the FA Cup on May 30, either can't be too rusty heading for the big cup final. However, it's still a guessing game on if they both start or if one starts out on the bench.

Of the recommended plays, I'm highest on Robbie Keane and Peter Crouch, given the matchups on hand and the importance of their sides nabbing the result. Spurs still have a Europa League place to play for and City don't keep a good defensive record away from Eastlands or overall in general. A result for Pompey against Sunderland pretty much secures their spot from any chance of relegation and the opportunistic Crouch should have some solid chances. On the flip side, neither Kenwyne Jones nor Djibril Cisse have scored any meaningful fantasy points recently, which makes either a wild card rather than a well-thought recommendation.

Midfielders

Must-haves:

• Cristiano Ronaldo, Manchester United (ARS)
• Steven Gerrard, Liverpool (WBA)
• Frank Lampard, Chelsea (BLA)
• Matthew Taylor, Bolton (HULL)
• Stephen Ireland, Manchester City (@TOT)
• Gareth Barry, Aston Villa (@MID)
• Aaron Lennon, Tottenham (MANC)

Recommended:

• Yossi Benayoun, Liverpool (WBA)
• Luka Modric, Tottenham (MANC)
• Ashley Young, Aston Villa (@MID)
• Marouane Fellaini, Everton (WHU)
• Tim Cahill, Everton (WHU)
• Jermaine Pennant, Portsmouth (SUN)
• Danny Murphy, Fulham (@NEW)
• Florent Malouda, Chelsea (BLA)

Wild Cards:

• Antonio Valencia, Wigan (@STO)

I can't imagine Fergie sitting Cristiano Ronaldo in opting for the jugular although if the game gets out of hand, expect him to be substituted (sorry, Ronnie, there's one huge game on the 27th to worry about). The best overall potential for a huge week would go to Liverpool's Steven Gerrard and while WBA will be fighting hard for their survival, they don't have the approach to play particularly cagey football. Frank Lampard is a must-start on any given day especially in light of a favorable matchup, but for what it's worth, I sold him for Gerrard in one league where I have Ronaldo, Rooney, Stephen Ireland, and Andrei Arshavin on. Speaking of Ireland, if City can pick out his runs (which they weren't doing against United), I like him to turn in a solid game even in the likely absence of Robinho, but I'm opting for him namely for discounted value if anything. The best discount must-have is Ireland's opposite number, Aaron Lennon and if you can't afford Lennon, fellow Spur Luka Modric is another fine option for the cheap. Of the recommended starts, I'd roll with Yossi Benayoun and Screech Powers' stunt double with a knack for a set-piece goal, Marouane Fellaini.

Defenders

Must-haves:

• Nemanja Vidic, Manchester United (ARS)
• Jose Bosingwa, Chelsea (BLA)
• Jamie Carragher, Liverpool (WBA)
• Fabio Aurelio, Liverpool (WBA)
• Joleon Lescott, Everton (WHU)
• John Pantsil, Fulham (@NEW)

Recommended:

• John O'Shea, Manchester United (ARS)
• Jonathan Woodgate/Ledley King/Benoit Assou-Ekotto, Tottenham (MANC)
• Ricardo Gardner/Gary Cahill/Gretar Steinsson/Jlloyd Samuel, Bolton (HULL)

Wild Cards:

• Nicky Shorey, Aston Villa (@MID)

There isn't much intriguing changes within the must-haves section of defenders to note, as United, Liverpool, and Chelsea have good shots at clean sheets as does Everton, given West Ham's makeshift attack, if you want to call it that. John O'Shea is once again the best bargain for a clean sheet from the top four while Rio Ferdinand is ruled out and I'd assume he'd be rested until the European Cup final. The most interesting plays come from the Tottenham camp especially considering Spurs haven't yielded a home goal in the league for quite a long while and City won't be without Robinho although Martin Petrov and Elano should feature. Each of those Spurs do cost more than a pretty penny though and City still have some firepower to buck their reputation as a toothless away side. I'd advise the Bolton backline again, this time against a Hull side that have scoring problems which can't settle for mere points right now. Speaking of relatively anemic attacks, Aston Villa on paper look like a good bet to keep Middlesbrough out of the net without Afonso Alves in the lineup, but they have a number of game-time decisions at the back, namely Luke Young and Carlos Cuellar, which makes Nicky Shorey the cheapest starting defender for Villa. The problem is without a now-retired Martin Laursen anchoring the back, Villa's defense has suffered greatly because of his absence.

Goalkeepers

Must-haves:

• Jose Reina, Liverpool (WBA)
• Petr Cech, Chelsea (BLA)
• Mark Schwarzer, Fulham (@NEW)

Recommended:

• Jussi Jaaskelainen, Bolton (HULL)
• Heurelho Gomes, Tottenham (MANC)
• Thomas Sorensen, Stoke (WIG)

Wild Cards:

• Edwin van der Sar, Manchester United (ARS)
• Brad Friedel, Aston Villa (@MID)
• Tim Howard, Everton (WHU)

Rumor has it Fergie could sit Edwin van der Sar for Ben Foster should VDS need the rest, but I reckon it's unsubstantiated. For what it's worth, Pepe Reina and Petr Cech are better pure clean sheet plays than VDS. I already stated Spurs' somewhat surprising tendency to keep clean sheets at home in the league which makes Heurelho Gomes worth a look. The best bargain of the lot is possibly Bolton's Jussi Jaaskelainen, in holding the fort against Hull who are badly challenged in finding the goal.

That about does it for me this week. I'm pretty sure I'd be a bit more free to talk about United's league win next Monday and safe to say, you should expect business to resume and the recap to be posted then. Check back next Friday as we cross the finish line for Diving in the Box the 2008-09 campaign. Until then, keep your clothes on...

-Ray