The title for this week's entry can be interpreted for my consistent disgust for the All-Star Break, in fantasy and general, as stated last week, but I can assure you it's not quite that. In fact, I don't have much to be disgusted about with the abbreviated week given I won 3 of my 4 H2H matchups (which I'll talk about in a bit of course). No, this column has more to do with what every H2H owner in the thick of their leagues should be doing: preparing for that playoff push. If trading season hasn't properly opened in your league or if you haven't pursued that move, now might be an opportune time to do it, as virtually all leagues are won or lost by trades. The H2H playoffs can be extremely cruel, as much as to say it feels like playing a game of Russian Roulette, and likewise, the trading game can feel like Russian Roulette because in essence, you're hedging your bets on the players that could better perform at the right time than another. To lessen that feeling of chance, I'll impart a few tips on what you should be aiming for:
For one thing, you should be assessing what you have on hand, more importantly the statistics you need to stay competitive obviously, but just as importantly, what kind of trade value you have with the pieces you would deem most expendable. Equally important than that, you should look to enhance the consistency of your statistics especially if you have a few players who are underwhelming in production and in value. This can be done by paying attention to the week-to-week fluctuations to your team's production. Statistical output week to week could smack of the feel of playing darts where your team's production can feel like they're random events week to week on paper (luck, if you will) but odds are random weeks where there's quite a good bit of highs and lows and not much in the way of consistency, could be a telltale sign that your team can be more hit-and-miss than average. On a micro-level, assessing players' expectations going forward is essential to making that move or two which either 1) gives you the statistics you need help for vying for or 2) make your squad more consistent in the statistics it is already good in, in order to stave off the backlash of overperforming.
Speaking of backlashes, onto Week 16, where the unpredictability of All-Star Week could propel or derail the Thrashers' championship hopes for at least one weekend. In California South, the Thrashers could've used the shortened week to finally sneak a matchup win in hopes of keeping their playoff chances a true reality, but needed to end the skid against the San Fran Pacificans, where a series loss to one of the top 3 sides could be a potentially damaging one to the Thrashers' title defense. Out in the USA West, it was another crucial week for the defending West champions to post a solid result and climb right back into the top 2 again. The table was set for the Thrashers as they would have to skip over the second-to-last Seattle Scorpions, a side depleted by injuries and little fill-ins. Lastly, the World Series frontrunners were the best suited to handle a loss but the chances of an upset special at the hands of Hamburger Blaufinken was a reality and one that would seem to strike on the side of bad fortune if anything. Which sides reigned supreme for the week and which one bit the dust this week? Let's find out:
H2H World Series
Hamburger Blaufinken 6, L.A. Thrashers 5
Thrashers can't run short track full on Hamburgers
Fears of a slow start fresh off the All-Star Break for the Thrashers were realized. It was a gamble to start Johnny Cueto this past Thursday but with all 4 Hamburger pitchers slated to start for the week (Mike Mussina, AJ Burnett, Roy Halladay, Brian Bannister), the plan was to stay aggressive even on the pitching front. Cueto nearly struck out the side the first two innings vs. the Mets but then served up a few fat pitches and alas, he was in line for a no-decision and an ugly ERA/WHIP to boot. On the other side, Mussina and Burnett posted quality starts to get Hamburger ahead with one win thanks to "Moose" and the early ERA/WHIP leads. Meanwhile, last Friday, the Thrashers' offense, shaking off the All-Star rest rust, flailed to a slow start and it didn't help matters when the likes of Ryan Braun and Grady Sizemore participated in last Monday's homerun derby. Hamburger were off to a strong start that day, getting 4 homeruns from their most reliable (Alex Rodriguez and Carlos Quentin) and the feast-or-famine guys (Ryan Ludwick and Jose Lopez). The Thrashers were faced with a gaping deficit, as the score read Hamburger 8-1 heading into Sunday's games. However, with the runs, RBI's, SB, wins, and WHIP determined by a slim margin in Hamburger's favor or by a tie, flipping the script on Hamburger was a realistic prospect. Furthermore, with Roy Halladay posting a horrible outing for his standards and similar blowups from the bullpen (Heath Bell, Mariano Rivera), Hamburger was forced to protect the ERA/WHIP leads with Brian Bannister of all people from a possible outstanding outing from Brandon Webb.
The tide started to turn Saturday in favor of the Thrashers, but it was starting to show on the stat sheet that Sunday. Bannister did not last past 3-4 innings in surrendering 5 runs, 8 hits, and a few walks. Heath Bell blew a hold opportunity and did so in grand fashion. Despite Octavio Dotel grabbing the only hold of the contest, he gave up an earned run anyway with the run coming off a hit batsman. The stage was set for Brandon Webb and in true fashion, Webb posted a fantastic outing that dropped the ERA and WHIP figures by a significant margin. Two categories were slated to go the Thrashers' way.
On the offensive front, the Thrashers capitalized on a no-show Saturday from Hamburger's offense with a much better display, capped off from a Chris Davis homerun and hoped for the same on the penultimate day of the series. The Angelenos couldn't hit the right side of the barn, but when they did, the ball jumped out of the yard. Such was the case with Carlos Pena and Ryan Braun, as both homered and given that Hamburger's offense was mired in a power drought that day as well, the Thrashers overtook Blaufinken in RBI to make it 3 categories swinging the Californians' way (and by the same token, cemented Hamburgers' lead in BA). A final-day SB blitz from the Thrashers had easily seen off Hamburgers' tenuous 1-0 SB lead to make it 4 categories captured in the Californians' way. A Brandon Webb win, a tie/win in runs, and a tie/win in homeruns would change the final complexion of the series, and turn it into a split, or even a win.
However, the Thrashers were denied of all three of those goals. A Ryan Braun double scored Rickie Weeks to re-tie the run totals but Braun couldn't nab that vital go-ahead run, which was a microcosm of the series as a whole, as the Thrashers didn't have much trouble getting on base all series, but failed to be picked up for a run a good number of times. This paled in comparison to Brandon Lyon's dramatic blowup for a blown save, which sullied Brandon Webb's chance for a win and the Thrashers' chances of a 5-5 split. On the flip side, Jonathan Broxton nailed down the save and so the Thrashers capitalized on the Dodgers' comeback rally victory anyway while preserving a 3-2 lead in saves and narrow leads in ERA/WHIP. It was an ugly matchup that ended in a sour finish, but that's the volatile nature of the All-Star week for you.
Out-of-Town Scoreboard: London whiff away the Fury, Tigers maul Peitudas
All-Star Week panned out to be much more aggravating for some teams as a few clubs walked away with routs, most notably, the London Knights and Lower Saxony Tigers. The defending champion London Knights pasted their UK South rivals, Felixstowe Fury, 11-1, a rout that was most indicative of the stat sheet. Coupled with the Thrashers losing 6-5, the 16 game cushion is 10.5 games now, but still a good stiff-arm from the rest of the competition. Lower Saxony wasn't deterred by the short week in brushing aside Brazilian champion, Peitudas, 10-1.
Meanwhile, the Psydney Psychos have been in hot form over the course of this month and they comfortably beat the then-3rd place North York Blues, 8-4. Manzen Marlins have recouped nicely as well, given their 8-4 triumph over the Northampton Squirels. The remainder of the results were fairly close as the New Hampshire Goats eked out a 6-5 win over Barcelona while the Brisbane Bikkies picked up a 6-5 win over the Edinburgh Dukes.
Seems like the gaps are set in place in the standings, at least for this week. There's a wider margin from 2nd to 3rd, as London have opened a 5.5 game lead over the new 3rd place resident New Hampshire Goats, who hold a 2.5 game lead over the Lower Saxony Tigers, who leapfrogged two places to 4th. Only 3 games separate New Hampshire and 6th place Manzen, and there's expected shuffling between the 4 non-bye playoff seeds in the coming months. Meanwhile, the playoff race for the squads outside looking in, is starting to look all the more exhausting as Edinburgh, Northampton, and Peitudas have run out of steam in recent weeks, dropping to 8th, 9th, and 10th respectively. Psydney has the best chance as it stands now, to squeeze in, but somehow they're 4.5 games away from the 6th spot. It's safe to say Hamburger and Brisbane are practically out of the running, being 15 and 16 games back from the final playoff spot, but Peitudas, Northampton, and Edinburgh will have to act fast or suffer the same fate.
H2HWS California South
L.A. Thrashers 7, San Fran Pacificans 4
Thrashers put a halt to the skid
As some wise man must have said many years ago: "as one winning streak ends in the World Series, a losing streak ends in California". Such was the case as the defending California South champions post a decent 7-4 victory over the Pacificans and get their playoff pursuits back in order. On top of avenging an early season defeat to the Pacificans and getting back to the .500 mark, the Thrashers move into 7th, but 4.5 games away from breaking through into the 6th seed. However, Rome wasn't built in a day, let alone being rebuilt, but it was a start.
The defending champions were brilliant from the get-go offensively posting a 4-day line of 26 R, 8 HR, 26 RBI, 3 SB, .295 BA, 1.033 OPS, which would have been even more impressive had 3 HR's not sat on the Thrashers' bench. Mark Teixeira, David Wright, and Adam Dunn each pitched in with 2 HR weeks while Magglio Ordonez slugged his first dinger since being activated from the DL. In contrast, the Pacificans' offense languished which made the Thrashers well deserving of sweeping the board in offensive categories.
Where Pacificans gained ground in was obviously, pitching, but they were far from sharp aside from CC Sabathia and Ben Sheets. However, with Halladay, Cueto, and Cain posting suspect winless outings together with Brandon Lyon's big flareup, the Pacificans easily had taken wins, ERA, and WHIP while slightly one-upping the Thrashers in K's on the final day whereas the Thrashers' sole pitching point came off of a 4-0 saves margin.
Out-of-Town Scoreboard: Lake Arrowheads, Giants roll on
The SF Giants didn't skip a beat in dispatching the Monterey Park Donuts, 9-3, who have slid down to 6th, a far cry from 2nd place several weeks ago. The result catapulted the Giants back to second, but it was the league frontrunner, Lake Arrowheads that posted an even better series result, knocking the snot out of the Davis Destroyers, 10-0. The league's top side opened the gap on the Giants to 7 games as a result whereas the Destroyers slid down two places to 9th in what has to be a maddening year given the relative strength of their squad.
It has been a maddening campaign for the California Blaze too, another underachieving side, as they also fell, 8-2 to Missin the Mets who have ascended to 4th as a result, and knocked Saddlebackers down a peg despite winning 8-4 over the Los Angeles Dodgers. Lastly, in the battle of the bottom two sides between two San Diego area squads, oddly enough, the San Marcos Sox got the best of it, winning 7-4 over the cellar dwelling Boondock Saints.
So, the table is set like this: Lake Arrowheads with a 7 game gap over the SF Giants, who in turn have a 4 game lead over local rivals and 3rd place resident Pacificans. The Mets trail the aforementioned Pacificans by 3 games for the third spot while holding a narrow one game lead over the Saddlebackers and Donuts respectively. The Thrashers are 4.5 games back from the Donuts and given that this week and the following week feature matchups vs. the Saddlebackers and Donuts, the next couple of weeks could prove to be a turning point. The champions have a more noticeable gap from the other outsiders looking in: 4 games ahead of 8th place Dodgers, 5.5 games in front of 9th place Destroyers, 7.5 in front of 10th place Blaze, and 11 games ahead of 11th place Sox.
H2HWS USA West
L.A. Thrashers 7, Seattle Scorpions 3
Thrashers brush aside stingless Scorpions
The defending champions took care of business against the second-to-last place Seattle Scorpions, 7-3, to reclaim 2nd place and climb back to within just 6.5 games from the top spot. Neither team was really on point offensively and on the pitching side but the Thrashers won RBI, AVG, and OPS convincingly while edging Seattle in runs by 4 and SB by 1 to take home 5 of the 6 offensive categories. Despite Matt Cain, Jonathan Sanchez, Jon Rauch, and Jason Isringhausen spiking the Scorpions' ERA and WHIP a good deal, it was offset by Zack Greinke's very poor effort for the Thrashers while Tim Lincecum wasn't quite sharp either. Neither side could scratch a win whereas the Thrashers had taken saves and K's for the week while Seattle had taken a hold thanks to Isringhausen to go alongside the clear results in ERA and WHIP.
Out-of-Town Scoreboard: Coyotes & Jacks split, Cafe Michigan run off to 5th
The shortened week had seen the frontrunning Panolas Coyotes take on the surging Missouri River Jacks, who were heading into this matchup on a high, in 2nd place. The Coyotes had a 7-3 edge on Missouri but given the tenuous nature of Sunday games with the added monkey wrench of an abbreviated week thrown in, the Jacks inched their way to a 6-6 split. The result had seen the Thrashers leap over the Jacks while gaining ground on the Coyotes.
Elsewhere, Cafe Michigan were arguably the biggest benefactor of All-Star Week, posting a 9-3 result over Bonds 762 that sees the Michigan side climb 3 spots to 5th, ousting Bilbos Bunch to the outside looking in at 8th place, having fallen to the league doormat, Houston Headhunters in an upset special. The Norcal champions, consequently, fell from 4th down to 6th and they're teetering with the final playoff spot barely. The wild West continues to get wild and woolly as the other Michigan club, the Michigan Panthers scored an 8-4 result over the Bellingham Rauks, a score that had seen the Panthers leap into 7th place and the Rauks down 3 places from 7th to 10th. Meanwhile, the Sparks Red Sox Slayers climb up a spot to 4th with a steady 6-5 win over the Texas Two-Step, which sets Texas one step back from 9th to 10th. Phew. Got all that?
So, the Coyotes still have a stiff-arm on the rest of the league but the gap has closed the last two weeks. The Thrashers hold a one game lead over the River Jacks for second place while the gap between 3rd and 4th is a significant one: a 7 game lead, which is considered to be a massive blessing. 4th to 10th place is a moshpit, only separated by 5.5 games from top to bottom. Sparks can afford to breathe a little bit, being 1.5 game ahead of Cafe Michigan, but in all actuality, no one is safe, given that one huge week could propel either team back into playoff contention our out of it. Only the Seattle Scorpions and Houston Headhunters can be ruled out for now, being 6.5 and 8.5 games off of 10th place Texas Two-Step.
Who's on deck?
The World Series frontrunner, L.A. Thrashers will look to demolish the All-Star Week roadblock and what better way to do it than against an in-form side in the Psydney Psychos. The Thrashers had edged by Psydney in Week 4 in a tense showdown and both sides will look to have a much improved offensive display this time around. Psydney has finally gotten to see Prince Fielder, Corey Hart, and Adam Dunn play up to form but they've also received a much needed power boost from Troy Glaus to complement Geovany Soto, Carlos Guillen, Bobby Abreu, and Shane Victorino. Psydney has a wealth of pitching options in starters (Lincecum, Felix Hernandez, Dice K, Slowey, Baker), holds relievers (Buchholz, Morrow, Howell, Marmol), and boast two of the premier closers today in Brad Lidge and BJ Ryan. To contest the formidable challenge of the Psychos, the Thrashers counter with not just an in-form Big 3 but an offense that has had its timely contributions from the likes of Nick Markakis, Rickie Weeks, Carlos Pena, Chris Davis, and Ryan Doumit. The Californian side is slated for two two-start aces in Scott Kazmir and Ervin Santana.
In California South, the Thrashers will seek revenge against the surprising Saddlebackers in their bid to climb back into the playoff seeds and stay there. Saddlebackers will need another potent showing from Kevin Youkilis, as aside from Albert Pujols, Michael Young, Russell Martin, Torii Hunter, and Carlos Quentin, the Saddlebackers offense seems to be a hit-and-miss lot. On the pitching side of things, the sun might begin to set on Edinson Volquez and John Danks while a new star may rise in Matt Garza and they'll have JJ Putz back off the shelf. The defending champions are slated to toss Scott Kazmir twice whereas the Saddlebackers will counter with two-start Andy Sonnanstine.
Finally, out West, the defending champions would like to keep the momentum going, but it'll be a tough chore against the Michigan Panthers, who seem to be just about on all cylinders, powered by Ryan Braun and Jimmy Rollins, as well as the in-form Prince Fielder, Corey Hart, Adam Dunn, Jason Giambi, and Troy Glaus. The Panthers have had a surprising couple of aces up their sleeve in Edinson Volquez and Ryan Dempster, as well as staff ace Cole Hamels and the underachieving AJ Burnett and Ted Lilly. BJ Ryan, Mike Gonzalez, Dan Wheeler, and Octavio Dotel round out a well-balanced pitching staff.
Check back next week as the season is back on schedule. Until then, keep your clothes on.
-Ray
