Captain's (B)log: H2HWS Half Time Report

We have reached the halfway point of the regular season in the H2HWS. Last year at this time, I blogged regarding the merits (or not) of each competing team, so guess what? You got it! Here is my half-time report on the state of play in the 14-team H2HWS, in order of the current standings. So let’s begin with a reminder of what those standings are:

1. LA Thrashers

Ray’s team has clearly established itself as the team to beat in 2008, holding a 10-game lead at the halfway point. 8 match-up wins and 1 solitary loss (ironically to bottom of the table Barcelona) are a testament to the all-round strength of this team.

A solid draft built the foundations, but the Thrashers have also been active - and successfully so - in the trading arena. Best example of this was the trade of Tim Lincecum for Grady Sizemore - dealing from strength in pitching to shore up a reasonable, but not spectacular outfield. Although few of their wins have been blowouts (I’ll not mention their best win of the year…), the consistency shown whilst challengers falter is enabling them to stretch their lead weekly. It is hard to find a weakness on this team - the presence of only 3 relievers (Hoffman, Lyon & Broxton) may be it - and that’s not too bad, really!

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  Best categories: WHIP (9 wins out of 11), HR/OPS/Wins (8/11)
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  Worst categories: SB/Holds (4/11)

2. New Hampshire Goats

With 7 wins and 4 defeats, the Goats have been there or thereabouts all year to date, quietly going about their task with little fanfare. Furcal’s DL trip and VMart’s struggles have been counter-balanced by the performances of Kinsler, Adrian Gonzalez & McLouth.

New Hampshire only drafted one starter in the first 12 rounds - Ben Sheets - and only 4 in total, meaning that most of the moves have been picking up starters as required, such as Jonathan Sanchez or Micah Owings. The staff still seems relatively light (Lester & Francis make up the 5-man rotation as it stands), and may need a bit more depth added to it to keep the Goats in contention. Basically, they do well in hitting each week and not so well in pitching!

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  Best categories: R/HR/AVG/OPS (8/11)
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  Worst categories: Wins/Holds (1/11)

3. Peitudas

The Brazilian champs have spent most of the season hovering around the top 6 before their latest result catapulted them up to 3rd place. A record which sees them with 7 wins and only 3 losses suggests that they deserve that spot, at least for now! Utley has obviously been the star of the offense, ably supported by the likes of Bay & Youkilis, and the presence of Ellsbury means that Peitudas will always compete in stolen bases each week.

The pitching is less secure, although the recent return of Peavy will obviously help there, whilst Harden has been a nice bonus (to make up for the disappointment that is Eric Bedard). After losing Rafael Soriano, the bullpen is just a little shaky with only Wood, Percival & Brocail putting up saves and holds. Like New Hampshire, Peitudas do well in hitting each week, but need a bit of strength added to the pitching.

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  Best categories: AVG/OPS (9/11)
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  Worst categories: Wins/Holds (1/11)

4. Edinburgh Dukes

Edinburgh were the early leaders and looking good until they were hit by a plague of injuries. Their bad luck can be summed up by their rotation to start the season - it consisted of Smoltz, Gallardo, Wang & Wainwright. Ouch. With Pujols, Weeks, Hafner & Putz also DL-bound, the Dukes can be fairly said to be the unluckiest team to date, and deserve much credit for still being in 4th place as we reach halfway.

Where to go from here? Well, drafting Josh Hamilton in Round 8 was a smart move, but he alone cannot carry a team. With Votto, Encarnacion, Bruce & Griffey Jnr in the line-up, it would appear that the short-term success for the Dukes depends on the real-life success of the Reds. With a pitching staff largely made up of waiver wire pick-ups, the Dukes will need their injured players back sharpish if they are to stay in the top 6.

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  Best categories: HR/RBI/OPS/ERA/WHIP (7/11)
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  Worst categories: SB/Wins/Ks (4/11)

5. London Knights

With the exception of a 10-1 win in Week 4, the defending champs got off to a very slow start, losing 4 of the first 6 match-ups, culminating in an 11-1 thrashing by, naturally, the LA Thrashers! Since then, it has been a slow, patient climb to get back, firstly above .500, and then back into the top 6, which was finally achieved this week, albeit in the midst of a bunch of teams with very similar records.

The main problem has been early-season under-achievement by the likes of Miggy Cabrera, Tex, Jeter, Harang & Snell (to name those still on the roster). The addition of the likes of Brian Roberts (trade) & Milton Bradley (FA pick-up) has helped, as well as a recent trade for Sabathia to bring a bit of consistency to the pitching staff. The bullpen has been the greatest strength so far, and that should continue with the imminent return from injury of Mike Gonzalez. The next 3 match-ups will be crucial, against the teams in 2nd, 3rd & 4th!

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  Best categories: Saves (9/11), Ks (8/11)
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  Worst categories: WHIP/ERA (3/11)

6. North York Blues

The Blues had a horrible start, losing 4 of their first 5 match-ups, before going on an excellent unbeaten run which only came to an end in Week 11 when beaten by the dominant LA Thrashers. The unbeaten run established them firmly in the top 6, where they still reside, despite the recent setback.

Their offense has held together despite losing 1st-Round pick Matt Holliday for a time, as the likes of Berkman, Morneau & David Murphy have been solid contributors. If the under-achieving Swisher & Cano can turn things around, North York will have a more than decent offense.

Pitching has been a similar story, with “ace” Verlander hardly living up to expectations, whilst the 2-3 of Carmona & Pedro have both spent time on the DL. With the amount of under-achievers on this roster, North York have done a fine job remaining in contention, and the next few weeks will show whether or not they can stay there, as they face a host of mid-lower table teams.

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  Best categories: RBI/Saves/ERA/WHIP (7/11)
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  Worst categories: Ks (2/11), SB (3/11)

7. Northampton Squirrels

Despite holding a won 5, lost 5 record, the Squirrels are well in contention, mainly due to the fact that only one defeat was by a margin greater than 2, whilst they have had 2 blow-out victories. The offense has been held together by Derrek Lee & Chipper Jones, although they are eagerly awaiting the return of Soriano & Tulo.

Northampton have been involved in a number of trades, some of which have worked out well (acquiring Volquez) and some not (trading for Soriano just before he hit the DL, although there is plenty of time for that to work out). Lincecum was acquired for Sizemore, but then moved on as part of the trade for Soriano, so question marks remain over the value of that trade. But with a staff that includes Lackey, Volquez, Lee & Saunders, the Squirrels have got some great value from their staff. The return of the DL-ed hitters could be the key to their 2nd half performance as their power numbers are somewhat lacking.

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  Best categories: AVG/ERA (8/11), Saves, Ks (7/11)
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  Worst categories: HR (2/11)

8. Lower Saxony Tigers

After beating Barcelona 10-1 in Week 6, the Tigers were cruising along near the top of the table. Since then, however, it has gone a little pear-shaped, with 4 straight defeats (albeit all by margins of 2 or less) followed by a narrow win in Week 11 to break the streak. The fact that all the defeats were narrow keeps Lower Saxony on the edge of the playoffs.

The Tigers were one of only two teams to draft 2 starting pitchers in the first 4 rounds, giving them a nice 1-2 in the form of Johan & Beckett. And they are well supported with Vazquez, Marcum & Lilly. Starting pitching is clearly the Tigers’ strength.

That is reflected in their hitting where, after Phillips & Atkins, and to some extent Michael Young, there is little to get excited about amongst their bats. There are guys capable of producing, for sure, but they are, on the whole, streaky guys, so the question of when to start which ones (and the Tigers have 13 batters on their roster) is always going to be an issue. They too have some key games coming up against teams around them in the table.

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  Best categories: Ks (9/11), R/Wins/WHIP (7/11)
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  Worst categories: SB/Holds (1/11)

9. Manzen Marlins

Like their counterparts from Lower Saxony, the Marlins got off to a great start, winning 4 of their first 5 match-ups. Since then, they have lost 5 out of 6 to slump to 9th place in the table.

What’s gone wrong? Maybe it’s got something to do with the fact that several of their pitchers (Livan Hernandez, Greinke, Penny) have fallen apart recently after getting off to decent starts. Having Jayson Werth in your starting line-up is not going to help, although it is perhaps odd that the recent slump has coincided with Jose Reyes playing his best baseball of the season. It also doesn’t help that their only closer is Saito, who, of course, is not getting any save opportunities with the lacklustre Dodgers at the moment; or that the rest of the bullpen is made up of one middle reliever, a certain Tom Gordon. I think the pitching needs to be addressed if the Marlins are going to claw their way back into the top 6.

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  Best categories: Wins (8/11), Ks (7/11)
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  Worst categories: Saves (1/11)

10. Brisbane Bikkies

Meet the streakiest team in the H2HWS! Brisbane began with 3 straight defeats, followed that up with 4 straight wins, and then reverted to 3 straight defeats again! Perhaps their latest result - a 6-6 tie - is a sign of something new?

Looking at some of the names on their team, it may seem a little surprising that they are currently down in 10th place. However, despite the likes of Vlad, Matsui, Ortiz & Figgins gracing their batting line-up, only McCann & JD Drew have really put up significant contributions. Injuries have played a part, of course, and the Bikkies must be hoping that Figgins recent return will kick-start Vlad both in real-life and on their fantasy roster!

The pitching also looks pretty good on paper, with Zambrano, Oswalt & Hudson amongst the staff. Brisbane has received good support from the bullpen, with Capps & CJ Wilson providing saves, & Wheeler & McClellan the holds. (It seems odd that they have only won saves 3 times so far). If they could get a bit more consistency from some of the big names, it is not out of the question for the Bikkies to climb the table, but with North York & LA on the upcoming schedule, that is easier said than done…

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  Best categories: Holds/ERA/WHIP (7/11)
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  Worst categories: OPS/Wins/Saves (3/11)

11. Psydney Psychos

The two Australian representatives find themselves side-by-side in the table, having got there by very different routes. Psydney have actually won more match-ups than Brisbane - 6 - but their problem is that when they lose, it can be a heavy defeat. That actually includes a 9-2 defeat by their local rivals!

Psydney are the reigning trading champs in the league, having been involved in 7 trades to date! Some have worked out better than others - Brad Lidge has been a great acquisition…Brett Myers has not. The recent trade with the Knights, bringing Adam Dunn & BJ Ryan to the Psychos may provide the kick-start they need, particularly to an offense that may be turning the corner with the recent improvements by Fielder, Hart and Glaus. Dice-K’s return to a staff which includes Lincecum & King Felix may also provide a much-needed tonic. I actually think they have a decent chance of making the playoffs, as the roto standings below bear out.

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  Best categories: Holds (7/11), RBI (6/11)
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  Worst categories: Saves (1/11), WHIP (3/11)

12. Hamburger Blaufinken

The third representatives from Germany have struggled to make an impact, winning only 3 of their match-ups to date. That said, they are moving in the right direction, as those wins have come in the last 5 ties after a truly shocking start which saw them lose 5 and draw the other of the first 6 match-ups.

A-Rod’s glowing performance since returning from the DL is surely the key factor in the improvement, but there is still much to be done, as Ludwick & Nady are the only other players on the roster with an OPS over .850 in the last month. Quentin’s average is slumping, Granderson has not done a great deal since returning & Ichiro is providing AVG, SBs, and not much else.

The problem may lie in the fact that Hamburger’s draft focused on big name closers, taking K-Rod, Nathan & Rivera. They have all performed well - no doubt about that - but it has cost Hamburger elsewhere. For example, the staff seems underwhelming at best, made up as it is of Halladay, Burnett, Mussina & Bannister. If they are to have any chance of making the top 6, surely this is an area that needs to be addressed.

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  Best categories: Saves (8/11), ERA/WHIP (7/11)
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  Worst categories: R/AVG (1/11), HR/OPS (2/11)

13. Felixstowe Fury

If there is any team near the bottom that has a genuine chance of making a 2nd-half move, I think Felixstowe would be the one. They got off to a rough start - not helped by the loss of Rollins & Posada for a time - but have stabilised since then and picked up a fair few decent results. 6 of their hitters have an OPS greater than .850 over the last month, for example.

With the likes of Posada, BJ Upton, Rollins & Manny on team, the Fury certainly have a batting line-up that should be able to compete in most categories. The pitching staff is reasonable, anchored by Hamels and backed up by Maine and a solid bullpen (including 4 closers). Losing Chris Young hurt, and the rest of the staff is not a reliable one, but there is potential in this team to make a move, if they can keep up their recent performances.

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  Best categories: SB/AVG/Saves/Ks (6/11)
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  Worst categories: HR (2/11), R/RBI (3/11)

14. Barcelona Reds

Poor old Barcelona are 12 games adrift at the foot of the table, in a seemingly hopeless position. They have had some encouraging result, beating the defending champs in Week 2, the runaway leaders in Week 8 and a close rival in Week 10. Unfortunately, each of those results was followed by a heavy defeat the following week, with the Reds being unable to build on any successes.

Looking at the team, it is not immediately obvious why a roster that includes the likes of Howard, Uggla, Ordonez, Rios & Pence can be struggling so much. Looking at some of their stats (Rios & Pence, especially) reveals some of the answer. The pitching, too, has not been good, as the rotation consists of Cain, Shields, Weaver & Wandy Rodriguez - not a good start - and the bullpen has only Borowski to get any saves, whilst the Middle Relievers are getting holds, but without putting up elite ratios. If the pitching can be addressed, the offense is good enough to enable Barcelona to improve their overall results, but it has to be said that the best they can realistically hope for is to make the consolation playoffs.

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  Best categories: R (7/11), HR (6/11)
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  Worst categories: Saves (0/11), ERA/WHIP (1/11)

Leaders

Here are the leading teams with regard to each category (if doing roto scoring):

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  R: New Hampshire Goats (379), Peitudas (353)
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  HR: LA Thrashers (98), Edinburgh Dukes (95)
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  RBI: Goats (365), London Knights (362)
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  SB: Peitudas (76), Manzen Marlins (61)
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  AVG: Peitudas (.289), Goats (.288)
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  OPS: Knights (.858), Peitudas (.842)

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  Wins: Northampton Squirrels (44), Thrashers (43)
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  Saves: Hamburger Blaufinken (59), Knights (47)
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  Ks: Psydney Psychos (535), Lower Saxony Tigers (534)
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  Holds: Psydney Psychos (39), Brisbane Bikkies/Barcelona Reds (31)
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  ERA: Thrashers (3.31), Psychos (.340)
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  WHIP: Peitudas (1.19), Thrashers (1.24)

Roto Standings

If this were a roto league, things would look like this:

Surprising, perhaps, to see Peitudas at the top, even with the worst record in wins and Ks. Also to see North York, 6th as things stand, down in 14th place in the roto standings. Of course, this isn't a completely accurate reflection, since punting categories (SBs, for example), is a much more legitimate strategy in H2H than in Roto, but it does give food for thought, particularly with regard to the...

Playoffs?

It is a mug’s game trying to predict anything in fantasy baseball, especially when you never know when the next season-ending injury is going to strike. But if I had to make a prediction, these are the 6 teams I would pick to be in the playoffs:

LA, Peitudas, New Hampshire, London, Northampton, Psydney.

This sees Edinburgh & North York drop out of the current top 6, to be replaced by Northampton & Psydney. I think the injuries suffered by Edinburgh are too big a problem to overcome, whilst there are too many question marks regarding under-performing players on North York's roster. By contrast, Northampton look in decent shape to sneak in, and I do like the potential in Psydney's squad to make a second half surge.

But only time will tell if I am right...in the meantime, what do the rest of the H2HWS managers think?!