Philadelphia Phillies

The trades are coming fast and furious today ...

The Philadelphia Phillies seriously bolstered their chances of repeating as World Series champions by outbidding several teams for reigning American League Cy Young award winner Cliff Lee of the Cleveland Indians, according to baseball sources.

The Phillies also received left fielder Ben Francisco and in return, the Indians netted a strong group of prospects: Class A right-handed pitcher Jason Knapp, Class AAA right-handed pitcher Carlos Carrasco, shortstop Jason Donald and catcher Lou Marson.

Yahoo! Sports

Excellent advice. Sell High ... Quick!!

Shrewd owners are shopping him right now, as Happ is due for a major course correction. Let me tell you a bit about why the hopes of sustainability for Happ are false hopes indeed.

While Happ’s ERA sits at a pretty 2.68, his fielding independent ERA checks in at an average 4.36. One of the reasons for the massive disconnect in the two numbers is Happ’s BABIP, which is tied for the lowest number in the league at .242. And while a pitcher like Dan Haren has great peripherals to support a low ERA, Happ’s peripherals are anything but great. His K-rate is average, his walk rate is bad, and his K/BB ratio is under 2.0. When looking for indicators of good future potential, you generally want to target SPs with a K/BB ratio over 2.0.

Happ also has benefited from stranding an unusually-high amount of runners on base. In fact, his 87% strand rate is second only to Matt Cain, another pitcher that’s performing a little over his head. This, along with the lucky BABIP, has given Happ the biggest positive difference between his ERA and fielding independent ERA. Ricky Nolasco still has the biggest negative difference of the two, and he has proven that while his surface numbers might have been awful for a while, eventually real talent shines through. For Nolasco, that’s been a good thing. When the hammer falls on Happ, it’ll prove to be a bad thing.

Fantasy Baseball Cafe

There are not a bunch of great match-ups today, but I am going with this one here for a few reasons. First off, if we are looking for great match-ups the Padres will rarely get their name in the lights, so I might as well show them a little love on a half day. Secondly, today is July 23rd, almost two thirds of the baseball season is behind us, and Kevin Correia, a pitcher for one of the worst teams in the game, has more wins and a better ERA, than Cole Hamels. Thirdly, yours truly spent the whole off season, telling you to avoid Cole Hamels this season.

I hope you listened.

Padres (37-58) @ Phillies (53-39), 7:05pm
  SDP: Kevin Correia (28, RHP, 6-7, 4.34)
  PHI: Cole Hamels (25, LHP, 5-5, 4.72)

Reference.com

Is "None of the Above" an option?

With Chien-Ming Wang likely unable to join the rotation again this season, Mitre will be a staple at the back end until he proves unworthy of the spot. Schmidt and Pedro could fall apart at any second because of age, but at 28 years of age, Mitre isn't nearly the injury risk.

We are in no way suggesting that Mitre will be a Fantasy stud going forward, but with owners already snatching up Pedro and Schmidt in 37 and 40 percent of leagues, respectively, we think it would be a much safer and more bountiful decision to grab the newest Yankee. With Mitre owned in just 16 percent of leagues, you can prove to your friends that you can look passed the glitz and glamour of once-great names and make the smart Fantasy move.

FantasyNews.CBSSports.com

I still have reservations about owning any Philly pitcher.

The numbers are impressive. J.A. Happ is 7-0 with a 2.68 ERA after he threw seven scoreless innings yesterday against the Marlins at Landshark Stadium. He is 5-0 with a 2.74 ERA in 11 starts since he replaced Chan Ho Park in the rotation.

Happ leads National League rookies in wins, ERA and opponents average (.222). He is second in innings (94). He is third in strikeouts (65). He is the only rookie to throw a shutout this season. He is a legitimate Rookie of the Year candidate.

The Zo Zone

J.A. Happ and the price of success

Should we expect Happ to keep the happy times rolling, or is he due for a fall?

J.A.’s peripherals suggest that he’s been more adequate than awesome. With 6.06 K/9, 3.17 BB/9 and a 1.38 HR/9 in the rotation, Happ has a pedestrian 4.85 Fielding Independent ERA. The homer rate looks bloated, but it’s hard to say that the figure should dip much in the coming months. Happ is an extreme flyball pitcher (career 33.6 GB% in the majors) in a ballpark that has inflated home run production by a healthy margin. His home run/flyball rate in the rotation (11.2%) is right around the league average. Happ has benefitted from plenty of fortunate bounces on balls put in play (.247 BABIP), while stranding an inordinate 88.1% of base runners while in the rotation.

The purpose of this post certainly isn’t to knock Happ; he’s a perfectly useful fourth or fifth starter, and clearly a better alternative to the Kyle Kendrick’s and Park’s of the world. But, it’s probably a good idea not to get too enamored by his fast start as a starter. Heading into the 2009 season, Baseball America said the following about Happ (dubbed the 9th-best prospect in the system): “Happ lacks a standout pitch and doesn’t figure to get all those strikeouts on fastballs as easily in the majors as he did in Triple A…He projects as a fourth starter in the long term.”

FanGraphs Fantasy Baseball

With his solo shot in the sixth inning Thursday night, Ryan Howard became the fastest player in Major League history to hit 200 home runs. Mad Props!

He already ranks eighth on the Phillies' all-time list:

1. Mike Schmidt, 548.
2. Del Ennis, 259.
3. Pat Burrell, 251.
4. Chuck Klein, 243.
5. Greg Luzinski, 223.
6. Cy Williams, 217.
7. Dick Allen, 204.
8. Howard, 200.

But where will Howard end up? The Bill James Handbook 2009 projects players' career numbers. It gives Howard a 32 percent chance to hit 600 homers, a 16 percent chance to hit 700 homers, a 9 percent chance to hit 762 homers and a 5 percent chance to hit 800 homers.

The Zo Zone

During today’s press conference in Philadelphia, Pedro Martinez said that he wanted to remain with the Mets, but the club didn’t show any interest in him. Martinez told reporters at Citizens Bank Park: “I was hoping the Mets would make a move…and they didn’t, so I decided to wait. It wasn’t my decision to not be in New York. It was someone else’s.”

MetsBlog.com

Hopefully it would be a better LCS than last seasons.

Are the Phils in repeat mode?

The defending champion Philadelphia Phillies went from tied for first on July 2 to owning a four-game lead at the break thanks to a 9-1 burst to end the first half. They can still rake - ask the Reds, whose bottoms must still sting from that 22-1 spanking last week - and they're working on the pitching end, too. Wily veteran Pedro Martinez is set to join the rotation in the coming weeks, and then there are those Halladay rumors. If they add Halladay, they should be favored to get past the Dodgers and reach the World Series for the second year in a row

az central

Ya Think?

Las Vegas doesn't have much confidence in Brandon Inge winning Monday night's Home Run Derby in St. Louis. Inge has 21 home runs, tied for fourth in the American League with Minnesota's Justin Morneau and the Yankees' Mark Teixeira. But Las Vegas odds-makers pit Inge as Monday's underdog. Lasvegassports-odds.com lists Inge as its biggest underdog of the Derby's eight participants, with odds to win at +950, which means a bet of $100 could earn the bettor $950 if Inge were to win. The favorite ..

• St. Louis first baseman Albert Pujols, is a +200.
• Philadelphia's Ryan Howard is second at +240,
• Milwaukee's Prince Fielder at +325,
• San Diego's Adrian Gonzalez at +465,
• Tampa Bay's Carlos Pena at +550,
• Texas' Nelson Cruz at +750,
• Minnesota's Joe Mauer at +800 and Inge.

detnews.com